Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who was the biggest Republican fundraiser in the first quarter of 2007, has also spent by far the most of any candidate on television and radio ads while he has lagged in third and fourth place in public opinion polls.
One recent Gallup/USA Today poll showed Romney tied with Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.), who has raised about a tenth of Romney’s $23 million, raising questions as to whether money will be enough to win over conservative primary voters.
Romney has spent about $1.3 million since the end of February to buy advertising time in an effort to appeal to conservative voters in Florida, South Carolina, and New Hampshire, according to records made available by stations in those and neighboring states. He is estimated to have spent another million dollars producing the advertisements.
A rival campaign compiled the data from the stations and provided it to The Hill. An official at another presidential campaign that is also tracking Romney’s airtime reported that Romney had spent well over a million dollars on advertising slots.
From the amount Romney spent on broadcast, radio, and cable time, one rival estimated that Romney has spent a total of $2.5 million reaching out to conservative voters, an estimate that includes advertising production costs.
Kevin Madden, Romney’s spokesman, declined to comment on campaign spending but said that it was generating momentum in early-primary states.
“We’ve seen gains in New Hampshire, Iowa, and all the early states,” said Madden. “The more people hear about Governor Romney, the better the polls go. The greatest challenge we have is that he’s not very well-known.”
Evan Tracy, the chief operating officer at TNS Media Intelligence, a media research firm specializing in policy and public-affairs advertising, said that Romney has to make up for a relative lack of media coverage compared to his better-known GOP rivals, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
“If you’re the Romney campaign, you have to generate movement in the polls to sustain the fundraising,” Tracy said. “If you’re third or lower in the polls, you have to look for ways to generate headlines and generate buzz.”
Tracy said that Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) is the only other presidential candidate to have hit the airwaves. He said that Hunter spent about $150,000 from his congressional reelection and political action committees but has not aired ads in recent months.
The results of Romney’s spending surge have been mixed. Romney appears to have the most support in New Hampshire but remains mired in third place. A CNN/WMUR-TV poll conducted from March 27 to April 3 showed that 17 percent of likely Republican voters voiced support for Romney, compared to 29 percent who backed McCain and 29 percent who favored Giuliani. A Zogby poll from the beginning of April, however, showed Romney tied with McCain for the lead in New Hampshire with 25 percent support.
“Romney has put a lot of time and effort into New Hampshire, and New Hampshire voters are very familiar with him because he’s from neighboring Massachusetts,” said Darrell West, a professor of political science at Brown University. “I think it’s a reflection of dissatisfaction with McCain. People don’t like how strongly McCain has supported Bush’s Iraq policy.”
According to a Fox News poll from earlier this month, Romney garnered support from 14 percent of South Carolina primary voters, trailing Giuliani and McCain by 12 and 11 points, respectively. But he remains largely unknown among Republicans in the most conservative of the early-primary states.
“I don’t get a sense that people are really focusing on the presidential election yet, except for the hard core who go to precinct meetings,” said Oran P. Smith, a conservative leader in South Carolina.
Smith said conservatives in his state view Romney “mostly as an unknown.”
“They think he looks good and sounds good, but I don’t think your average Republican voter knows that much about him,” said Smith. He added that he doubted that many primary voters even knew Romney was Mormon, which could be a concern for evangelical Christian voters.
A Zogby poll conducted at the end of March in Iowa showed Romney with 11 percent support among likely Republican caucus-goers.
David Yepsen, a political columnist for the Des Moines Register, said that conservatives in Iowa have been slow to warm up to Romney, despite an intensifying advertising campaign.
“He’s not electrified anybody,” said Yepsen. “He’s not taken off.”
On broadcast television ads alone, Romney has spent about $300,000 in Iowa, about $72,000 in New Hampshire markets, about $298,000 in Florida, and about $263,000 in South Carolina between Feb. 20 and April 10. (The South Carolina total includes money Romney spent for time on Georgia stations that reach into the Palmetto State.) Romney also spent about $54,000 on broadcast ads in Michigan, which is expected to hold its primary on Feb. 5, 2008.
While Romney has more money than any other Republican candidate, he has taken steps to slow his rate of spending. He has pursued a “pulse strategy,” interspersing bursts of television and radio advertising campaigns with week-long periods of inactivity. He appears to be saving money by pulling his ads before they become overly familiar and reintroducing them before they slide from voters’ memories.
Romney has bought much of his airtime on Fox News, a network popular with conservative voters, in markets such as Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Sioux City in Iowa; Boston and Burlington, Vt., which reach into New Hampshire; in Tampa, Sarasota, and Orlando in Florida; and Greenville, Columbia, and Charleston in South Carolina.
Romney will disclose his campaign spending over the first three months of the year when he files a campaign finance report with the Federal Election Commission in a few days. |
