Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) is struggling to gain “traction” in the new early-voting state of Florida, even though his campaign has been on the ground with an extensive organization since last year.
Romney’s campaign said Monday that organization is only the first step, and they expect his poll numbers to improve once he is introduced to the wider state electorate.
But officials said a number of factors, including the presumed candidacy of ex-Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) and Romney’s inability to lure supporters of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), as well as the expensive advertising market, further complicate Romney’s efforts to win the GOP primary in the Sunshine State.
A review of polls conducted in Florida in July shows Romney consistently coming in fourth behind former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R), Thompson and McCain in the Republican primary, which recently jumped to a premier spot in the primary calendar.
Romney has registered a boost of support in polls as McCain’s campaign increasingly is seen as struggling, but Romney advisers concede that most support appears to be moving to the undecided column.
The chairman of the Palm Beach County GOP, Sid Dinerstein, said Romney is “a strong presence and has a very strong campaign staff, but he is not showing a lot of traction at the polls.”
Another GOP official noted that Romney has the most “extensive” organization in the state and has even made a small TV buy, but neither has translated into moving numbers.
Romney had spent about $850,000 in Florida as of June 30 and made 11 trips there this year, with more than 30 stops. He has 11 staffers, plus three consultants, in Florida, and 15 endorsements from state legislators.
He also scored a major get when he enlisted the help of Sally Bradshaw, a longtime adviser to former Gov. Jeb Bush (R).
Bradshaw told The Hill Monday that the campaign’s first goal was to get organized and consolidate support from well-known political commodities in the state, such as Bush’s lieutenant governor, Toni Jennings (R).
Because the Romney campaign started putting pieces into place to make a strong showing in a straw poll party leaders initially pushed for before moving instead to an early primary, the campaign was not caught off guard by the legislature’s move, Bradshaw said.
“We were prepared to play early anyway,” she said.
Bradshaw said the poll numbers have not come as any surprise to the campaign, as organization alone will not move numbers. Instead, she said, the campaign has been laying the groundwork for the fall, when Romney will devote more resources to paid media and trips to the state to increase his name recognition there.
The campaign notes that Giuliani is a household name in the state because of Sept. 11, 2001, and the high number of New York transplants, and that McCain’s name has been a common one since his first presidential run in 2000. And Thompson has been a regular presence on TV’s “Law & Order” since leaving the Senate.
On the other hand, Bradshaw said, public and internal polling regularly shows that almost 50 percent of Florida voters “either don’t know Gov. Romney or don’t have an opinion.”
“At the end of the day, name ID is driving the ballot,” one Romney consultant in Florida said. “[But] pushing that aside, clearly our numbers aren’t top-tier.”
The consultant added the campaign thinks Romney’s numbers will rise once it begins spending money on paid voter contact, and as the early buy exemplifies, the cost of doing so in Florida will far outweigh the costs in New Hampshire and Iowa.
Romney has seen his numbers improve dramatically in the smaller early-voting states, particularly after his campaign began spending money on advertisements in the smaller media markets.
“It’s going to be a showdown here in Florida,” the consultant said. “In Iowa and New Hampshire, you can spend a couple million dollars and make a significant impact. In Florida, a couple million dollars might buy you a couple weeks.”
Thompson’s presumed entry could cause another wrinkle when the Romney campaign tries to apply its formula from the smaller states to Florida.
One GOP consultant noted that Romney’s initial ad buy in the state coincided with the rising buzz surrounding Thompson’s possible entry.
Jennings told The Hill that she has talked to some voters who say they are withholding their support for Romney until Thompson makes up his mind about a White House bid.
“There may be some that are still waiting,” Jennings said. “I think [Thompson] sort of reworked the mix here.”
Thompson has made two trips to the state so far this year, and he added a Florida advantage in recent weeks when he hired
Randy Enright, former executive director of the state party, as campaign manager after Thomas Collamore resigned.
“It’s an area that he knows better than anyone,” Thompson spokeswoman Linda Rozett said of Enright.
Anita Mitchell, a longtime Thompson supporter and a Florida-based member of his exploratory committee, said that Florida will be a top priority for Thompson, but she said she doesn’t envision him writing off any of the other early-voting states.
A bigger question facing Romney and the rest of the Republican field is how to stop Giuliani, who seems to enjoy a home-court advantage of sorts due to the large number of Northeastern transplants to the state.
“It seems like Giuliani is completely banking on Florida,” the Romney consultant said. “He seems to be putting all of his eggs in this basket.”
Giuliani officials said that while they do consider Florida to be an early-voting state, just like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the former mayor’s travel and attention prove that he is committed to doing well in all of the early states.
One senior adviser to Giuliani said his team is “not sitting on our lead.” When asked if the campaign sees Florida as being as crucial as the other early states, the official replied, “I think people could probably make that argument.”
A win in Florida will be crucial heading into the ultra-loaded Feb. 5 Super Tuesday, which includes New York, New Jersey and California.
Giuliani has been building his organization in the state on the run, the adviser said, but it will be “second to none.”
Both Bradshaw and the Romney consultant said Giuliani’s numbers seem to be slipping in the state, but they concede that those supporters aren’t necessarily going to Romney.
For that matter, neither are McCain’s.
While the senator’s campaign has struggled through the summer with reports of bad fundraising, staff infighting and campaign shake-ups, his support has not immediately dried up in the state, according to polls.
McCain still comes in around a tie for third place with Romney, but behind Giuliani and Thompson.
A senior adviser to McCain said that while Florida remains part of his team’s strategy, it is focused more on Iowa and New Hampshire. The campaign is hoping that an organic presence in the Sunshine State, together with a couple of early wins, will propel the senator to victory there.
McCain continues to enjoy the support of a former chief of staff to Jeb Bush, Kathleen Shanahan, and also has the support of four members of Congress, compared to two each for Romney and Thompson and none for Giuliani.
One state operative said whatever infrastructure McCain had on the ground is gone as the struggling campaign looks to conserve resources and focus on the earlier states. Dinerstein said people he talks to on the ground don’t think the prognosis is good for McCain’s chances.
The one thing every campaign agrees on is that despite the early primary, the race is still fluid.
|
