New fundraising data shows that Beltway insiders who had been on the fence are flocking to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) presidential campaign as she has maintained her strong lead in the polls, performed well in debates and made few mistakes.

Clinton raised $1 million from Washington, D.C. donors during the third quarter of 2007, far more than any other presidential candidate and about twice as much as her chief rival, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), according to data compiled by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

Clinton’s fundraising in D.C. has also mirrored her climb in the polls.

“It’s clear the money was tracking with Clinton’s polls, giving credence to the notion that people were waiting for someone to take the lead,” said Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan organization that monitors campaign fundraising.

Krumholz said that Clinton raised 7 percent of her D.C. money in July, 20 percent in August, and 73 percent in September.

“There are a huge number of donors who simply want to bet on the winner,” she said.

Obama has cost himself contributions from D.C. residents by refusing to accept money from registered lobbyists. But that by itself does not explain his diminished Beltway fundraising.

Many members of Washington’s political community are not lobbyists, such as Julian Epstein, a principal at the Law Media Group, a policy and media relations firm, who held a fundraiser for Clinton at his home Wednesday evening.

“When you swear off lobbyist money and [political action committees], that diminishes your prospect in D.C.,” said Krumholz.

Nevertheless, she said the new fundraising numbers are “a sign the D.C. fence-sitters are moving toward [Clinton].”
Clinton spokesman Blake Zeff said, “We’re gratified by the enthusiastic support but taking nothing for granted and working hard for every vote.”

Enthusiasm for Clinton in Washington, as measured by campaign donations, has grown as political pundits have assessed her strength and chances of winning more and more favorably.

“There is probably an 80-percent chance that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, will win the Democratic presidential nomination, maybe 10 percent that Sen. Barack Obama, wins it and 10 percent that lightning strikes and someone else gets it,” wrote political analyst Charlie Cook in an Oct. 9 column, a conclusion that many political insiders have adopted in recent weeks.

In September, a front-page headline in the Sunday New York Times, a Democratic staple, reflected the spreading view that the Democratic primary had become much less competitive than the Republican contest: “As Clinton Solidifies Edge, GOP Field is Wide Open.”     

Except for a few days in May, when Obama beat Clinton in a few polls, Clinton has maintained a consistent lead over her rival in Iowa. In New Hampshire, site of the nation’s first primary, Clinton has climbed in the polls since early August while Obama has dropped steadily, according to Real Clear Politics, a website that tracks polling averages in primary states.

Clinton raised $1.1 million in D.C. this past quarter, compared to $1.2 million in the second quarter. Obama raised $600,000 between July 1 and Sept. 30, and $1.3 million in the previous quarter, according to FEC data.

Obama spokeswoman Jen Psaki said, “It is not surprising that Sen. Clinton is more popular than Sen. Obama in the Washington lobbyist crowd. Fortunately, the more than $75 million Obama raised in primary dollars from real people and not Washington insiders is not too shabby.”

Lobbyists supporting Clinton’s campaign say that she and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, have concentrated much of their time on raising money in D.C.

On Oct. 9, for example, Clinton’s national campaign co-chairman, Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), and senior campaign strategist Harold Ickes held a fundraising breakfast at Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher.

Bill Clinton attended a  D.C. fundraiser for his wife at the law firm of Hogan & Hartson, on 13th Street, Thursday evening.

“This is a natural constituency,” said former Rep. Vic Fazio (D-Calif.), explaining Clinton’s popularity in D.C.. “A lot of people have worked for her in the Senate. I run into people all over this town who have nothing but praise for the way she’s run her Senate office.

“She’s run a very smooth operation and convinced a lot of people she has the look of inevitability,” added Fazio, now a senior adviser at Akin, Gump, Strauss, Hauer & Feld. He has endorsed Clinton’s campaign.

Thomas Quinn, a lobbyist with Venable, said Beltway Democrats have moved toward Clinton’s campaign because they are following the campaign’s progress closely.

 “The Beltway people are much more tuned in to polling numbers and political data,” he said, then quoted Damon Runyon to describe why D.C. political insiders are giving substantially more to Clinton than Obama. “The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.”  

Quinn also said that Clinton’s campaign has focused on the District: “They’re calling a lot of old friends and people who worked in previous Clinton administration.”

Zeff, Clinton’s spokesman, said, “We’re proud of our support from all walks of life and from all parts of America, but it is the grassroots enthusiasm, 24 low-dollar events last quarter, and over 100,000 new donors in the last three months that catapulted us into the position of having the most resources of any campaign.”