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Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) has not won a single Democratic congressional district since Feb. 5 and has won only one Democratic district in states carried by Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), a sign that she is less popular among the party’s most loyal voters, say political experts.
But there is also good news for Clinton: She is performing better in Republican districts, which may bode well for her appeal among centrist and conservative voters in a general election, according to political observers.
Clinton’s lack of popularity among the nation’s most hardcore Democratic districts may result from the lingering resentment among liberals over her 2002 vote to authorize President Bush’s invasion of Iraq. In addition, many of the most loyal Democratic districts are overwhelmingly African-American.
“The pattern shows that she isn’t winning big confidence from the Democratic Party,” said Bruce Cain, a political science professor at the University of California at Berkeley and director of the University of California’s Washington Center. “Even in the states she won, the areas that are the most hardcore Democratic went for Obama.
“In the areas where the Democratic Party has been strongest, the support is greatest for Obama, which gets to the whole issue of, Who is the true nominee of the party?” said Cain.
A Clinton spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.
The Hill compiled data from 25 states for which election data was available for individual congressional districts. District data was unavailable for seven states, including New York, New Jersey, Illinois and Louisiana. The analysis did not include Florida and Michigan, two states Clinton won, because the Democratic National Committee stripped those states of their delegates.
Most striking was that detailed election results show that Clinton did not win a single Democratic district in Nebraska, Washington, Maine, Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii and Wisconsin — states voting in the wake of Super Tuesday.
Clinton won Virginia’s 9th congressional district, represented by Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher, but the area is hardly considered a Democratic stronghold. Bush won it by 59 percent and 55 percent of the vote in the last two presidential elections, while Boucher is among the most conservative Democrats in the House, especially on energy and gun issues.
On Feb. 5, Clinton won only one solidly Democratic district in a state that otherwise favored Obama: Connecticut’s 2nd congressional district, which Republican Rep. Rob Simmons represented until January 2007.
By contrast, Obama has won a slew of Democratic districts in states won by Clinton. In California, Obama captured 11 true blue Democratic districts. He won Tennessee’s 5th and 9th congressional districts, as well as New Mexico’s 3rd district. Clinton won all three of these states — California and Tennessee with large margins.
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