No matter who ends up winning Saturday’s Nevada caucus, among the first contests of the Democratic presidential primary, the big winner may end up being Harry Reid (D-Nev.).

The Senate Majority Leader faces re-election in 2010 and is expected to be among the top Democrats targeted by Republicans and could be vulnerable if he fails to raise his approval ratings.

Recent surveys have shown Reid’s approval rating in Nevada hovering between 32 percent and 41 percent. Many independents and moderate Republicans have expressed concerns over his strong partisan style in Washington, according to state political experts.

Facing those challenges, Reid has parlayed his position not only to benefit the Nevada Democratic Party, but his own reelection chances.

Democrats and Republicans credit Reid for single-handedly persuading his party to advance Nevada’s presidential caucus by a month, giving it a pivotal role in deciding the Democratic nominee. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) have poured immense resources into the state and campaigned there vigorously.

As a result of the concentrated attention, the number of registered Democrats has surpassed the number of registered Republicans for the first time in years. As of December, Democrats boasted approximately 397,000 registered voters to 392,000 Republicans. The total number of registered voters at the time was approximately 980,000.

“It’s night and day,” said Kirsten Searer, deputy executive director of the Nevada Democratic Party.

“We were behind in statewide voter registration in 2006 by several thousand voters. We’re now ahead several thousand voters. We had entire counties where we didn’t have any organization. Now we have people identified in almost every precinct, we’ve established central committees in many of those counties.”

Jim Ferrence, a Democratic political consultant based in Nevada, estimated that Democrats would lead Republicans in voter registration by 15,000 after Saturday.

“I think it’s going to help him tremendously,” said Ferrence, discussing how the growth in party rolls might impact Reid’s re-election bid. “The senator has always had close races. All the signs point to 2008 and 2010 being huge Democratic years in Nevada.     The caucus has created a lot of excitement.”

Jon Summers, Reid’s communication director in Nevada, downplayed the personal benefit for his boss, saying Reid worked to move up the Nevada caucus date to give the state more influence in the nominating process.

“Injecting diversity in the nominating process, highlighting Western issues, and building Democratic infrastructure in Nevada are all reasons he worked to make Nevada an early caucus state,” said Summers. “Before, the West didn’t factor a whole lot when it came to choosing a nominee.”

Ferrence said that the caucus is Reid’s latest move to build the state party. Reid has helped place talented operatives in important political positions, he said, noting that Rebecca Lambe, a former Reid aide, now serves as an advisor to the state party.  

Reid will need strong political organization because Republicans have vowed to exploit his low approval ratings.

“We look at him being incredibly vulnerable,” said Zac Moyle, executive director for the Nevada GOP.

“His approval ratings are incredibly low.”

Moyle said that Reid ran in 2004 on the slogan that he would be independent like Nevada but has since become President Bush’s chief antagonist.

“It will be hard for Reid to promote himself on the promise [of independence] in 2010,” said Moyle.

Reid famously called Bush “a liar” and “a loser,” and last year declared the war in Iraq “lost.”

In a recent television ad urging voters to participate in Nevada’s caucus, Reid has set a different tone.

The spot shows him in a sweater gently urging both Republicans and Democrats to participate in the process.

Molly Ball, the political reporter for the Las Vegas Review Journal, which has commissioned polls on Reid’s approval rating, said the ad may be an attempt to “blunt the partisan image he¹has acquired” as majority leader.

A difficult campaign is looming for Reid, who won in 2004 with 61 percent of the vote against Richard Ziser, an evangelical Christian who made his political name as an opponent of same-sex marriage. Ziser received little support from the national party and had difficulty raising money.  

This time around, Reid should expect Republicans in Washington to continue a newly forged tradition of targeting the Senate party leaders. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has piled criticism on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who is facing re-election this year, even though a Democratic opponent has yet to emerge.

Republicans raised the partisan stakes against leadership in 2004 when the party unseated then-Democratic Senate leader Tom Daschle (S.D.).

Nevada GOP political operatives say that 3rd-term Rep. Jon Porter (R-Nev.) is the leading candidate to challenge Reid. They also mention freshman Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.), Republican Lieutenant Gov. Brian Krolicki, and state Sen. Randolph Townsend.

Rep. Shelley Berkley (D), who represents Las Vegas, said that the outpouring of excitement surrounding the Democratic caucus has caused political changes in Porter’s district.

Berkley said Porter’s district now has several thousand more registered Democrats than Republicans, adding the partisan trend “has occurred due almost entirely to the caucus effort.”

“I think there’s no doubt that the caucus and the extraordinary effort to register voters has helped all of us who will be running on the Democratic ticket,” said Berkley. “I think Senator Reid is an extraordinary politico. He must be a remarkable chess player because he can see many moves down the line. If [the caucus] also helps Harry Reid, that’s icing on the cake.”

Nevada Republicans are also scheduled to hold a presidential caucus, but their contest hasn’t drawn nearly as much attention. One reason is because South Carolina, which is viewed as a key state in the GOP primary, is holding an election the same day. Another is that Republican organizers do not have the advantage of a top party leader promoting the caucus.

Reid helped convince the Democratic National Committee to sanction Nevada as an early primary contest site, while Nevada Republicans had to contend with the threat that they might be penalized for advancing their caucus so early in the process. Reid also has some measure of influence over the two leading Democratic contenders, who are members of the Senate Democratic caucus.

Porter praised the Senate majority leader for giving Nevada a more important role in the primary process.

“I want to credit the senator with bringing the caucus to Nevada and accelerating our ability to engage in the presidential campaign,” said Porter. “We have this caucus because of Senator Reid and it’s a good thing.”

Porter gave no indication that he intends to challenge Reid in two years.

“I like the House,” he said. “I’m on the Ways and Means Committee and I can do a lot of right things for Nevada. I’m very focused on my reelection.”