Millions of people showed up at recent immigration rallies in U.S. cities. President Bush talked to the nation Monday evening to prod Congress to send him a “comprehensive” bill to sign. But if there is to be an immigration bill it will come down to a small group of lawmakers handpicked by GOP leaders who will cut deals in a conference committee.

“When we get a Senate bill, we’ll take a look at it,” House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) said Tuesday.

Tactically, there’s no reason for Hastert to commit himself to anything at this point. But there seems no way around having hardliner House Judiciary Committee Chairman James Sensenbrenner (R-Wis.) lead the House side in conference negotiations. It’s Sensenbrenner’s namesake bill the House passed Dec. 16 — the one that would build a fence along a part of the Mexican border and apply criminal penalties to illegal immigrants and people who help them — that propelled the marchers to the streets. Sensenbrenner’s bill is enforcement-only, with neither the path to citizenship nor the temporary-worker program embraced by the president.

Last month in the Senate, a bipartisan pact on immigration unraveled. Tuesday’s stream of immigration amendments on the Senate floor showed the ability of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) and Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to resuscitate legislation. There is something that approximates an attempt at a spirit of compromise among the Senate leaders. The same is not apparent in the House when it comes to the immigration legislation that has divided the GOP base.

The Senate Democrats have always been more worried about the conference committee than what was happening on their floor. The problem is this for the Senate Democrats: They face the very real prospect of crafting a compromise on immigration that can be stripped away in conference, leaving the enforcement-only legislation on the table. Then, with the election getting closer, they will be forced to an up-or-down vote on a measure that could portray them as soft on border security. That’s a nightmare outcome for Democrats.

Reid turned up the Bush rhetoric Tuesday, calling him out for barely mentioning in his Monday prime-time address the real problems ahead.

Reid said the president “needs to look first at his Republican leadership in the Senate and say something negative about this monstrous House bill that we’re going to have to go to conference with.”

Frist on Tuesday said, “Ultimately, it’s going to be up to 100 senators out here listening very carefully to the debate.”

But when it comes to the bottom line, there won’t be 100 senators at the conference committee table. That’s why Sensenbrenner-wary Senate Democrats in April tried to pressure Frist into virtually naming pro-compromise Senate conferees in advance as part of the immigration package.

House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) on Tuesday said he has a “lot of confidence in Chairman Sensenbrenner, working with the Senate to help produce a responsible immigration bill that deals with this issue in a serious way.”

Bush is trying to put some muscle behind his rhetoric. He sent chief political adviser Karl Rove to the Hill yesterday to talk to the House GOP conference on immigration. And he worked the precincts Tuesday, inviting conservative leaders to the White House to dissuade them from an enforcement-only approach.

Millions march. A few will decide.

Sweet is the Washington bureau chief for the Chicago Sun-Times. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it