GOP changes Graham-Cassidy bill to win over wary senators

Senate Republicans on Sunday night circulated a revised draft of their bill to repeal and replace ObamaCare, aiming to win over key holdout senators. 

According to estimates of the state-by-state impacts obtained by The Hill along with the revised bill, Maine and Arizona would see boosts in funding. Alaska would see a small drop in federal funding. 

The analysis from the backers of the bill argues that after taking into account money the state would save on its Medicaid program, Alaska would gain relative to current law. But Democrats argue that is misleading and say what matters is that Alaska would see a cut in federal funding.

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Those states are home to three holdouts on the bill, Sens. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsSunday Shows preview: Lawmakers, Trump allies discuss Russia probe, migrant family separation Ernst, Fischer to square off for leadership post Democrats seize on DOJ's ObamaCare decision ahead of midterms MORE (R-Maine), John McCainJohn Sidney McCainThe Memo: Trump’s media game puts press on back foot Meghan McCain shreds Giuliani for calling Biden a 'mentally deficient idiot' Mueller warns of Russian midterm attack, while Trump attacks Mueller MORE (R-Ariz.) and Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiOvernight Energy: Spending bill targets Pruitt | Ryan not paying 'close attention' to Pruitt controversies | Yellowstone park chief learned of dismissal through press release Senate committee targets Pruitt scandals in spending bill GOP chairman seeks ‘sufficient’ funding for EPA watchdog office MORE (R-Alaska). 

However, it is far from clear that the revisions would be enough to win their support. Collins has a long list of concerns, including an overhaul of the Medicaid program. McCain has denounced the process as rushed and lacking bipartisanship. 

The state-by-state analysis projects a 3 percent increase in funding for Alaska, a 43 percent increase for Maine and a 14 percent increase for Arizona. 

It is possible, though, that independent analyses of the impacts of the bill will be different than this analysis from backers of the bill.

Some experts point out that the numbers do not appear to take into account a separate cap on Medicaid spending in the bill, which would lead to further cuts to federal funding to states.  

The overall bill is largely the same as the earlier version. It still converts ObamaCare's subsidies and Medicaid expansion dollars into a block grant for states. 

It also allows states to waive ObamaCare protections against people with pre-existing conditions getting charged more, an area at the center of controversy around the bill. 

“Despite an attempt to appear to add money for a select few states, this bill is just as bad for those states and the rest of the states because it still contains a massive cut to Medicaid, and would throw our health insurance system into chaos while raising premiums," Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.) said in a statement. "It still takes away protections for those with preexisting conditions and further weakens consumer protections."

The measure is headed toward a possible vote this week ahead of a Sept. 30 deadline for using a special budgetary process that prevents a Democratic filibuster. However, it has extremely long odds. McCain and Sen. Rand PaulRandal (Rand) Howard PaulRand Paul's neighbor sentenced to 30 days in prison over assault Dems best GOP as Scalise returns for annual charity baseball game The Hill's Morning Report — Can the economy help Republicans buck political history in 2018? MORE (R-Ky.) are against it, and Collins has said it is hard for her to envision voting for it. 

Republicans can only lose two votes and still pass the bill with a tie-breaking vote from Vice President Pence.