Ben Goddard

When “stuff happens” overseas, presidents almost always get a bump in their approval ratings. The average is 13 percent for 22 weeks, according to historical data compiled by Public Opinion Strategies. President Obama’s approval ratings increased by nine points in the 48 hours following the capture and killing of Osama bin Laden.

I wrote a check to the IRS this week that had a lot more numbers to the left of the decimal point than I would have preferred. I wrote that check with mixed emotions: I am thankful that I can pay a lot more in taxes than I earned when I started the business that is my day job. Naturally, I would have liked to pay less. But I honestly can’t quibble with my tax bill. If we are ever going to get our nation’s debt under control, I’ll probably be paying even more in the future.

As the House of Representatives circles around Paul Ryan’s “Path to Prosperity” this week, I find myself marveling at the confusion over just what is in it. I haven’t read Rep. Ryan’s (R-Wis.) work and, in truth, probably never will. But I have been captivated by the coverage and commentary on his “audacious” long-term spending plan. Some see a blueprint — a basis for further discussion of how we get our nation out of debt. Others see a right-wing attack on the social safety net. Almost no one sees a document that will ever become law.

I don’t know what god Terry Jones and his Dove World Outreach Center worship, but it is certainly one who doesn’t appear in my Bible and has no role in my universe. Jones, the Gainesville, Fla., pastor of a tiny flock of fundamentalists, surfaced from the Florida swamp a year ago to threaten burning a pile of Qurans on Sept. 11. More reasonable voices persuaded him that nothing would so dishonor those Americans who died on that date than the burning of books — any books. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates apparently got a message through to the fundamentalist preacher that he would be putting the lives of American soldiers at risk were he to go through with his act. 

Writing in these pages yesterday, Markos Moulitsas said Wisconsin’s GOP leaders were out to prove “they truly deserve to get thrown to the curb.” National Republicans, led by Tea Party stalwarts, could well be on the same path, with their double-talk on a government shutdown/slowdown and sweeping proposals for budget cuts. While the difference between a shutdown and a slowdown is likely too esoteric for voters out in the real world to grasp, it does continue to add to the “noise” surrounding Republican messaging that has been driving support for their budget proposals lower and lower.

My home state of Idaho now ranks as one of the most conservative in the nation. But it wasn’t always so. In the early days of the 20th century, unions were a powerful force there, especially in the mining country of the north. Dynamite was a more common organizing tool than picket lines, and was even used to retaliate against a governor who called in the Pinkertons in a failed union-busting effort that led to an assassination attempt to even the score.

Congress is back on Capitol Hill, and we’re hearing some subtle differences in its rhetoric. As always, what members heard back home might not match up with what they hear inside the Beltway echo chamber. Here, messaging is largely driven by talking heads — those who host and appear on the Sunday shows and those who propagate the cable networks. Out there, in the real world, people don’t pay a lot of attention to TV chatter. The Nielsen numbers tell the story. The most popular of the Sunday talk shows rate a solid 3+ in D.C. But in Denver or Detroit or Dallas, they are lucky to pull a 1.5.

And so the budget battle begins. President Obama has laid out a modest approach to deficit reduction in his budget — one that ignores, or at least fails to embrace, many of the recommendations of his bipartisan budget commission. When grilled on this subject by the media this week, his response was classic Obama: You are all too impatient; nothing gets done quickly or easily in this town; the budget is a process.

As President Obama addressed the nation on Tuesday evening I was in a dark, crowded room peering through one-way glass at a group of voters from the real America — citizens who live outside the Beltway and spend very little time paying attention to our insular world here in the nation’s capital. The 30-some focus group attendees I listened to that night sounded many of the same themes the president was giving voice to in his speech to the Congress.

Watching the Republicans tear into the Obama healthcare plan this week leaves me wondering if their leadership held a different election from the one I voted in a dozen weeks ago. At the very least, they heard a different message from voters. The GOP leadership seems to believe that its mandate from voters is to repeal healthcare reform and, oddly enough, to cut Social Security to help close the deficit.