Ben Goddard

Much of the political chatter about healthcare reform in the past week has been of the glass-half-empty variety. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) had to make too many deals.

Nothing beats word of mouth. Advertisers lust after the buzz that creates a “tipping point” of desire for their products. Political strategists crave the “chatter” that builds momentum for their candidates. All of this still holds true in the digital age. If anything, “going viral” has become the next Holy Grail for products and political campaigns.

Maybe it comes from nearly three decades of political involvement in the Golden State, but I’ve always considered California something of a bellwether — the canary in the coalmine when it comes to early warning signs of political trends. The most recent Field Poll, a widely reported and quoted and generally accurate reading of California tea leaves, suggests rough seas ahead for state governments. The clear message from voters is that they are mad as hell at the governor and the State Legislature and want some serious changes, but they are not sure their leaders are up to the job.

As the White House debates how to respond to Gen. Stanley McChrystal’s call for additional troops in Afghanistan, two powerful allies are said to be pushing for an escalation of U.S. forces. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton seem to have done a mind meld on Afghanistan policy.

Like a lot of others who opine on politics, I was concerned about President Barack Obama’s hasty trip to Copenhagen, Denmark, to try to close the deal on the Chicago Olympics, even before the International Olympic Committee unceremoniously swatted aside the Second City’s bid. “Why risk political capital and international prestige on such a capricious group?” I wondered. It seemed then, and still does, to be something the president didn’t need on his plate alongside healthcare reform, Afghanistan and a nuclear Iran. Especially when we all know energy policy and financial reform are about to be dished up as well. The brusque rejection of Chicago made for several days of cable TV and talk radio chatter, a couple thousand column inches of newspaper angst and who knows how many blogs. But an early reading of the tea leaves suggests that the people who really count, American voters, pretty much ignored the whole misadventure.

Two of America’s best pollsters delivered a strong message to President Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress this week: Find a way to quickly declare victory in the battle over health insurance reform.

The ’70s Scottish folk/rock group Stealers Wheel had a huge hit that has since been covered by half a dozen rock, folk and country artists. “Stuck in the Middle with You” could be the White House theme song as the battle over healthcare reform devolves into rigid partisan posturing on both ends of the political spectrum. “Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right/ Here I am, stuck in the middle with you,” songwriter Joe Egan sang in the band’s only big hit.

The first opinion column I ever wrote for a real newspaper was a plea for President Lyndon Johnson to heed the growing chorus of Americans calling for him to get out of a war he didn’t start and that didn’t make sense. He didn’t get the message.

In the early summer of 1993, leaders of the health insurance industry finally got a short meeting with the White House task force on healthcare reform. The insurers presented their own series of reforms to make healthcare coverage more affordable, more available and portable if a consumer lost or changed jobs. The insurers asked for a seat at the table to help hash out a plan for reform that would have preserved the private insurance industry and achieved many of the goals of the Clinton administration. The insurers were rebuffed. “We need an enemy and you are it,” they were told. That blunt conversation led insurers to conclude they had a fight on their hands, and the “Harry and Louise” campaign was born. Interestingly, few involved with that effort thought the White House healthcare reform proposal would fail. The initial goal of the campaign was to force changes, not kill the plan.

If members of Congress are able to start their scheduled August break Friday, many of them may be wanting to head for a secluded vacation spot rather than returning home to face their constituents. Back home they’ll find voters who’ve been bombarded with grassroots and advertising campaigns from all sides of the healthcare debate. Labor, the president, both political parties, insurers and business groups that don’t want to pay the bill for healthcare reform have ginned up grassroots activists and scheduled substantial advertising buys to argue their particular point of view.