Here are my major predictions:
1. President Obama will try to surprise the political world by naming a leading national figure as White House chief of staff and a nationally respected Republican to his Cabinet. If these moves are not announced in early 2011, it will be revealed in Bob Woodward’s book, if not sooner, that the president extended these offers and they were turned down.
2. Sarah Palin will issue a Sherman statement declaring she will not run for president in 2012, and will instead host a one-hour political talk show on network or cable television that will become the highest-rated political talk show in TV history.
4. There will be a high-noon showdown over government spending that will bring the federal government to the brink of a shutdown. At the last minute Speaker John BoehnerJohn BoehnerFormer House leader Bob Michel, a person and politician for the ages Former House GOP leader Bob Michel dies at 93 Keystone pipeline builder signs lobbyist MORE (R-Ohio) will broker a deal with President Obama because he remembers what happened between Newt Gingrich and Bill ClintonBill ClintonMoulitsas: Trump’s warped sense of reality Syrian safe zones: Trump's best bet for refugee relief, regional stability Chelsea Clinton attends Muslim solidarity rally in NYC MORE. The deal will anger liberals and conservatives but lead to rising public approval of BoehnerJohn BoehnerFormer House leader Bob Michel, a person and politician for the ages Former House GOP leader Bob Michel dies at 93 Keystone pipeline builder signs lobbyist MORE.
5. President Obama and both parties will talk about the deficit but only fight for modest action. However, a potential global bond market crash could force far more dramatic deficit reduction, creating a revolutionary political climate as all things sacred are forced onto the table during another financial crisis.
6. The jobless rate at the end of 2011 will remain near 9 percent. The real jobless rate will remain near 16 percent. The cover story of Time magazine in December 2011 will be titled "The Jobless Nation.” There will be an explosion of activism from the Democratic base, which will appeal to heartland America and create a progressive revival going into 2012.
7. The big Republican surprise during 2011 will be the emergence of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush as a potential presidential candidate.
8. The rising star senator of 2011 will be Republican Lisa MurkowskiLisa MurkowskiA guide to the committees: Senate Public lands dispute costs Utah a major trade show Oprah's network provides Senate with tape of abuse allegations by Puzder's ex-wife: report MORE of Alaska, who will become an authentic political independent in the Senate. New York Mayor Mike
Bloomberg will tease the political market about running for president but will not, creating a groundswell for Murkowski to run in 2012 as an Independent.
9. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will orchestrate and lead a national unity government for Israel that will include all major political parties and involve a substantial compromise proposal Israel will offer the Palestinians in negotiations.
10. A significant "Draft Howard Dean" for president movement will begin among grassroots Democrats. Dean will call on them to disband, but whether a major primary challenge to the president emerges will depend on how far the president moves to triangulate against the Democratic base.
11. The recent WikiLeaks disclosures will be forgotten by early 2011, but WikiLeaks disclosures about financial firms will be the 2011 bombshell. This will be accompanied by major insider-trading indictments that will make financial corruption a cutting-edge national issue.
12. The U.S. military will make steady progress in Afghanistan but there will be no clear end in sight for the mission, and no meaningful troop withdrawals in 2011.
13. Glenn Beck will leave Fox News. Fox will maintain its ratings lead, but MSNBC will gain audience share because of the battles between President Obama and Republicans in Congress. The evening host lineup at MSNBC will remain strong and the coming stars to watch are Willie Geist and Cenk Uygur. The big cable news will be a dramatic shakeup at CNN with a defining corporate decision about its overall direction. “The Larry King Show" will return somewhere on cable television.
14. Names to watch in 2011 include: Colin Powell, whose profile will rise with the Obama administration. Former Nebraska Republican Sen. Chuck HagelChuck HagelWho will temper Trump after he takes office? Hagel: I’m ‘encouraged’ by Trump’s Russia outreach Want to 'drain the swamp'? Implement regular order MORE and former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who will either take high-level posts with Obama or be mentioned as Independent presidential candidates along with Murkowski. Incoming Florida Republican Sen. Marco RubioMarco RubioA guide to the committees: Senate Schumer: GOP will break from Trump within months GOP loses top Senate contenders MORE, who will join the top tier of potential GOP vice presidential nominees for 2012.
Let me close 2010 by offering my thanks to all who read my columns and take the time to comment (whether you agree with me or not!). I hope you are all having a very happy holiday season, and I know we are all going to have a very interesting new year!