By Brent Budowsky - 03/09/10 12:43 AM EST
Predictions: In November, Democrats will keep control of the House and Senate. The “doom for Democrats” scenario of über-pundit Charles Cook and others will look foolish in six months. Well before then they will reverse course. Here’s why:
• The seven monthly jobs reports released before Election Day may all show positive jobs growth. The natural recovery of the economy, increased spending from the stimulus bill and hiring of a quarter-million Census workers will fuel jobs gains greater than political analysts realize.
• Congress will pass a healthcare bill. Passing either the pending bill or a scaled-back bill will bring some victory for the president and a major relief rally for Democrats.
The playing field in November will reverse the playing field of today, with jobs optimism rising and healthcare pessimism receding.
• The progressive populist base that elected Democrats in 2006 and 2008 is being roused again, with or without the president, who was the beneficiary but not the cause of the tidal wave for change that began between 2004 and 2006.
• Arkansas Lt. Gov Bill Halter is energizing small donors and Democratic populism with his challenge to Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.). His challenge will energize Democrats in Arkansas and elsewhere.
• Today Democrats wallow in the misery of New York Gov. David Paterson. Soon, Democrats will be energized by the appeal of Andrew Cuomo, the New York attorney general who embodies the fighting populism that Democrats need to win in 2010.
• Former Houston Mayor Bill White will make the battle for governor of Texas a High Noon showdown rallying Texas Democrats, appealing to Texas independents, registering new voters and tapping the great Hispanic population wave that will transform Texas politics. White will run against the Civil War-age anachronisms of secession, nullification and interposition that will not create one job, build one business or educate one child in Texas.
• Domestic right-wing terrorism and extremism will hurt Republicans, especially juxtaposed against a growing economy that will benefit Democrats.
• If the jobs picture brightens, Democratic Senate candidates have a chance of winning Republican Senate seats in Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire and Florida.
• Pro-choice women will vote in far higher numbers than analysts expect.
• Democrats will unite behind an aggressive populist attack on the widely disliked Supreme Court campaign-finance decision that would further corrupt Washington and is opposed by 70 percent of Republican, Democratic and independent voters.
Now, Democrats will lose seats in 2010. It is also clear that the White House and many Democrats in Washington are not brilliantly attuned to the temper of our times, but:
America is not a nation of right-wing extremists, haters, pessimists, nut-case secessionists or admirers of obstruction. The base that prevailed in 2006 and 2008 is being roused again. The jobs for workers are coming. The “doom for Democrats” pundits are wrong.
Budowsky was an aide to former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen and Bill Alexander, then chief deputy majority whip of the House. He holds an LL.M. degree in international financial law from the London School of Economics. He can be read on The Hill’s Pundits Blog and reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.