By Dr. David Hill - 08/07/12 10:46 PM EDT
The latest James Carville-inspired Democracy Corps polling in so-called battleground congressional districts is entertaining, as is most everything the Ragin’ Cajun touches. We learn that Republican incumbents are on the verge of being gunned down like Pickett’s men charging up that hill at Gettysburg. The poll’s summary memorandum’s headlines are relentless. “Republican vote falling.” “Republican incumbents out of touch with districts.” “Republicans now lose the healthcare debate. “ “The Ryan budget: Vulnerability.” Can’t catch a break, can we? And we learn that Democrats are going to scare seniors on Medicare after they frighten recently poor folks with threats of being “pushed back into poverty” by Republicans.
I can just see the Carville Democrats laughing and giving themselves high-fives as they celebrate the pending total evisceration of the Republican brand they so abhor, along with the motley members of Congress who march under that banner. The poll proves it. We Republicans should negotiate surrender before the Democrats come for our spouses and children. There is no love for Republicans.
I finally gave up on the prepared memo and went right to the actual data and polling results. Here are a few things not highlighted in the memo predicting the savage deaths of Republicans everywhere. First, the authors didn’t deal with the problem known as Obama. Forty-two percent of the voters in these battleground districts strongly disapprove of the job being done by Barack ObamaBarack ObamaObama: 'Stop to reflect' on Memorial Day John Bolton slams Obama’s ‘shameful apology tour’ Miss. governor to join lawsuit against Obama transgender policy MORE as president. Only 30 percent strongly approve. So the net difference among voters with intense opinions — and that’s what really counts — is a negative 12 points for the president and Democrats. How is that going to kill the elephant?
The Cajun and his minions also ignore their feeling thermometer, which also shows a negative 12 net difference in sentiment against “the new healthcare reform law.” This is surprising, given that top-line memoranda of analysis assure readers that Republicans are losing the healthcare debate.
A larger view that I discerned was that neither party, per se, is winning, Ragin’ reasoning aside. Most differences between the parties on key issues were in the margin of error, one way or another. Party labels won’t win or lose this election; candidates will, even if that doesn’t please Democrats like Carville. All the cross-tabs and push questions in the world can’t beat an incumbent who is serving his or her constituents, staying in touch and taking care of business. James knows this, but he just can’t help himself. He was born with a corndog in his mouth that makes the carnival barking come naturally.
David Hill is a pollster that has worked for Republican candidates and causes since 1984.