Israelis on subject of peace

By Mark S. Mellman - 01/15/13 08:41 PM ET

In discussing Chuck Hagel’s nomination (which I’m not), a number of commentators described Israeli public opinion on the Middle East conflict in ways that are at odds with reality.

To illustrate with one clear example, journalist Carl Bernstein opined that “Israelis are divided down the middle, just like we are.” His fellow commentators nodded sagely in agreement, though there is little basis for such an assertion.

Israelis are not particularly divided in their desire for peace. Sixty-eight percent of Israeli Jews support peace negotiations with the Palestinians, with just 27 percent opposed. Israelis’ commitment goes beyond just talking: Sixty percent support the principle of two states for two peoples.

A larger 68 percent would support a specific “two-state peace agreement … with the Palestinians entailing a demilitarized Palestinian state with boundaries based on the 1967 lines along with territorial swaps that reckon with Israel’s security concerns and keep the major settlement blocs under Israeli control; if Palestinian refugees could return to the new state but not to Israel; if the Arab neighborhoods of Jerusalem reverted to the Palestinian state, the Jewish neighborhoods stayed in Israel and the Old City were under some kind of joint administration; and if the agreement would come into effect only after the Palestinians ended all terror activities and the United States approved the deal.”

There is consensus, not division, on the desirability of peace and in support of the outlines of a specific peace agreement. There is an equally clear consensus, one might even say despair, about the actual prospects for peace.

Two-thirds agree “the peace process with the Palestinians is at a standstill for reasons that have nothing to do with Israel and there is no chance of progress in the foreseeable future.”

These sentiments are clearly reflected in the content of Israel’s current election campaign. While the right, which will likely end up with a majority, campaigns on security issues, only one party of the center or center-left is focused directly on the conflict and it is likely to secure less than 10 percent of the parliamentary seats. Other center and left parties recognize the small constituency for a foreign policy coming from that direction, instead directing their attention to social and economic issues.

Why the extraordinary pessimism? Consider, first, Palestinian public opinion. A survey last month by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found over half of Palestinians still supporting “armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel.” Sixty percent believe Hamas’s missile attacks and terrorism is the way forward, with just 28 percent endorsing President Abbas’s stated commitment to peaceful resolution of the conflict.

The specific peace plan outlined above, overwhelmingly favored by Israeli Jews, draws support from a 43 percent minority on the Palestinian side, where the principle of a two-state solution is met with even division.

Action on the ground produces even more pessimism, with the Gaza example forming a dark cloud in the consciousness of Israelis. Unable to envision real progress from negotiations, in 2005, Ariel Sharon unilaterally withdrew from Gaza. Forcible eviction of thousands of Jewish settlers from their homes in Gaza and dismantling 21 settlements created a national trauma.

However, the result was not peace, but over 8,000 rocket and missile attacks launched from Gaza after the Israeli occupation had come to an end, the settlements uprooted. Therefore, Israelis reasonably ask, “Is peace realistic? Will rockets still fall on kindergartens and community centers after an agreement? Will half of Palestinians still give aid, succor and support to terrorist attacks?” The Gaza example calls the possibility of peace into question for many Israelis.

Israelis are not divided down the middle; they are divided within. There is a consensus in support of peace, a peace that includes another painful withdrawal from most of the territory captured in 1967, but also a consensus that there may be no real partner for or path to peace.

Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982. Current clients include the Majority Leader of the Senate and the Democratic Whip in the House.