Dick Morris

How the race stacks up from here

Mitt Romney is on track to win the nomination when the primaries and caucuses are over on June 6.

Currently, Romney has 498 of the 1,144 delegates he needs to be nominated. He now has 53 percent of the selected delegates, a clip he has been maintaining since the start of the process. Rick Santorum has 25 percent, Newt Gingrich 15 and Ron Paul 7.

CURRENT DELEGATE COUNT

Romney 498 (53%)

Santorum 239 (25%)

Gingrich 139 (15%)

Paul 69 (7%)

Romney is very likely to win the following winner-take-all primaries:

LIKELY ROMNEY WINNER-TAKE-ALL WINS

Puerto Rico 23

D.C. 19

Maryland 37

Connecticut 28

Delaware 17

Rhode Island 19

Oregon 28

California 172

Montana 25

New Jersey 50

Utah 40

458

+current Romney 498

956

In addition, Romney will probably win these winner-take-all states:

Wisconsin 42

Indiana 46

West Virginia 31

Nebraska 35

South Dakota 28

182

+ 956

1,138

Finally, Romney will probably do very well in the following proportional-representation states. Some, like New York and Illinois, award most of their delegates as a winner-take-all by congressional district

PR State Delegates Prob Romney

New York 95 80

Illinois 69 45

Maine 24 20

New Mexico 23 15

160

+ 1,138

1,298

Needed to nominate: 1,144

So, even if Romney loses the winner-take-all primaries in North Carolina and Pennsylvania and gets clobbered in Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and a few other conservative states, he should win the nomination by the time the primaries are over on June 6.

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