Dick Morris

How the race stacks up from here

Mitt Romney is on track to win the nomination when the primaries and caucuses are over on June 6.

 

Currently, Romney has 498 of the 1,144 delegates he needs to be nominated. He now has 53 percent of the selected delegates, a clip he has been maintaining since the start of the process. Rick Santorum has 25 percent, Newt Gingrich 15 and Ron Paul 7.

 

CURRENT DELEGATE COUNT

 

Romney          498 (53%)

Santorum        239 (25%)

Gingrich          139 (15%)

Paul                  69 (7%)

 

Romney is very likely to win the following winner-take-all primaries:

 

LIKELY ROMNEY WINNER-TAKE-ALL WINS

 

Puerto Rico            23

D.C.                       19

Maryland                37

Connecticut            28   

Delaware                17

Rhode Island           19

Oregon                   28

California                172

Montana                 25

New Jersey              50

Utah                       40

                              458

+current Romney    498

                              956

 

In addition, Romney will probably win these winner-take-all states:

 

Wisconsin                     42

Indiana                         46

West Virginia                 31

Nebraska                      35

South Dakota                28

                                 182

+                               956

                              1,138

 

Finally, Romney will probably do very well in the following proportional-representation states. Some, like New York and Illinois, award most of their delegates as a winner-take-all by congressional district    

 

               PR State                Delegates        Prob Romney

              

New York       95                         80

Illinois            69                         45

Maine             24                         20

New Mexico   23                          15

                                                160

               +                            1,138

                                             1,298

 

Needed to nominate:               1,144

 

So, even if Romney loses the winner-take-all primaries in North Carolina and Pennsylvania and gets clobbered in Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and a few other conservative states, he should win the nomination by the time the primaries are over on June 6.

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