By Dick Morris - 06/17/08 04:53 PM EDT
Gas prices are the first important issue in the 2008 elections. But both parties have been pathetic in their solutions and, one suspects, in their understanding of what is going on.
Democrats call for windfall profits taxes. Bad idea. How can you get oil companies to explore and drill if you tax away their profits? Republicans focus on a gas tax “holiday,” an 18-cent palliative to gas prices that now top $4.50.
Fadel Gheit, managing director of oil and gas research for Oppenheimer and Co., and Jim Norman, author of the book The Oil Card, coming out next month, say that speculation is responsible for a huge part of the run-up in prices.
The growing demand for oil by India and China and the instability of oil supplies certainly account for much of the increase. But the recent spike, they say, is equally due to the weakness of the dollar and massive speculation.
They argue that oil prices are, indeed, determined by supply and demand — not only the supply and demand for oil, but also the supply and demand for oil futures. (Oil futures are a commitment to buy 1,000 barrels of oil at a certain date at a certain price.)
Formerly, most of the investments in oil futures came from energy companies. The federal Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sharply limited investments by those outside the business, to prevent precisely the kind of speculation now gripping the market.
But when the stock market slowed down in 2000–2002, outside investors decided to speculate in oil futures.
The new players were institutional investors like corporate and government pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, university endowments and other investors, guided by brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
To avoid the CFTC caps, these investors moved their operations to London, setting up the International Commodities Exchange. Now they can buy all the oil futures they want.
Michael W. Masters, of Masters Capital Management, told Congress that the volume of investment in commodities futures soared from $13 billion at the end of 2003 to $260 billion by March of 2008.
After a while, the CFTC rescinded its limits on how much speculators could buy as long as they went through special “swap” desks at the major brokerage houses.
You can buy oil futures for only 5 percent down on margin, a bargain considering the 50 percent margin requirement for stock market equity investments. Because the margin requirement on oil futures rises as the due date approaches, few investors actually end up buying the oil; they just roll over their investments.
So the willingness of sellers to unload their oil futures, and of buyers to acquire them, sets up its own market of supply and demand that has more to do with determining the actual price of oil than even the global demand and supply for the product itself.
On May 20 of this year, Masters told Congress: “Commodities futures prices are the benchmark for the prices of actual physical commodities, so when index speculators drive futures prices higher, the effects are felt immediately in spot prices and the real economy. So there is a direct link between commodities futures prices and the prices your constituents are paying for essential goods.”
Gheit and Norman suggest that the CFTC regulate the domestic oil futures market (NYMEX) and the participation of U.S. companies in the ICE, restoring the caps on the amount of oil futures speculators can buy. Gheit also urges raising margin requirements for them.
Both worry that the oil futures bubble is going to burst and cost a lot of investors — particularly pension funds who channel their investments through the swap desks of the brokerage houses. We don’t need another sub-prime or savings-and-loan crisis on our hands right now.
The Senate recently tried to force CFTC regulation of all commodities speculators, but the bill was loaded down with a windfall profits tax, so the Republicans killed it.
John McCain needs to get with this program. In his town hall meeting in New York City last Thursday night, he attacked speculators for driving up oil prices but didn’t propose remedies or really explain the problem.
Americans will pay close attention if he does. For McCain, this is the issue and now is the time to use it.
In Memoriam: Tony Schwartz
For decades, the three S’s dominated media in our politics: Bob Squire, David Sawyer and Tony Schwartz. Now the last of this splendid trio has passed away. It makes us all feel a bit more mortal, a useful thing for politicians.
Tony was special. Everything I have ever learned about advertising and media either comes directly from his teachings or is anchored in his wisdom. He basically founded modern political media. A disciple of Marshall McLuhan, he translated his ideas into practical ways to influence voters and convey a message from a candidate.
He is directly responsible for Johnson’s huge margin over Goldwater, Carter’s election and Bill Clinton’s comeback, in 1982, following his 1980 defeat as governor of Arkansas.
He believed that media was but a catalyst for an intellectual transaction that took place in our minds. He felt the content of all advertising was internal and that the film or sound merely elicited a reaction that had been stored away.
He saw survey research (pre-search, as he liked to call it) as the road map to this internalized media. He invented the word and idea of “narrow casting,” an alternative to broadcasting — advertising aimed at a small group of people or perhaps just one president, senator or mayor.
He was a giant in the field. There is no debt more onerous and none which can be repaid with more difficulty than an intellectual one. When one’s career and the insights that have led to one’s achievements are derivative of another’s thinking, that is a hard debt to repay. This note is partial payment.
Tony Schwartz. A creative, public-spirited, brilliant man with a mind that transformed our country. Rest in peace.
Morris, a former adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of Outrage, Fleeced, Catastrophe and 2010: Take Back America — A Battle Plan. To get all of his and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by e-mail or to order a signed copy of their latest book, Revolt!, go to dickmorris.com. In August, Morris became a strategist for the League of American Voters, which is running ads opposing the president’s healthcare reforms.