By Dick Morris - 05/19/10 10:18 PM EDT
The message of the May 18 primaries is that it is open season on incumbents.
In Pennsylvania, Sen. Arlen Specter (D) lost decisively to Rep. Joe Sestak (D) in his primary contest, while Sen. Blanche Lincoln (Ark.) limped into a runoff in the Democratic primary by 44-42 over Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.
Both Specter and Lincoln are now reaping the harvest of their votes for healthcare, a fate soon to be shared by Sens. Harry ReidHarry ReidSatanists balk at Cruz comparison Cory Booker is Clinton secret weapon Overnight Energy: Dems block energy spending bill for second day MORE (D-Nev.), Barbara BoxerBarbara BoxerCarter pledges probe of sex assault testimony Senate panel backs B water bill with Flint aid The Hill's 12:30 Report MORE (D-Calif.), Michael BennetMichael BennetGOP Senate candidate wins right to be on Colorado ballot EPA ozone rule looms large in swing state 2 Colorado Senate candidates fail to qualify for ballot MORE (D-Colo.), Patty MurrayPatty MurrayOvernight Healthcare: Medicare fight looms on Capitol Hill Senate GOP hardening stance against emergency funding for Zika Overnight Healthcare: More trouble for Zika funding MORE (D-Wash.), Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) and Kirsten GillibrandKirsten GillibrandCarter pledges probe of sex assault testimony This week: Congress on track to miss Puerto Rico deadline Maryland Senate primary intensifies MORE (D-N.Y.). And the liability of incumbency was also vividly on display a week ago when longtime Democratic incumbent Congressman Alan Mollohan (W.Va.) was upended in his primary contest.
Lest the Democrats take comfort in their new standard-bearers in Pennsylvania and Arkansas, it is obvious that Sestak and Halter will be easier to defeat than their far-better-known incumbent rivals would have been. The new senator from Pennsylvania will be Republican nominee Pat Toomey, and from Arkansas it will be Rep. John BoozmanJohn BoozmanBringing US rice back to Cuba Senate passes energy reform bill Capitol Hill’s forest champions helped secure win for wood MORE (R).
With the defeat of Specter, the likely demise of Lincoln and the recent loss of Sen. Bob Bennett (R-Utah), the Senate class of 2011 will have at least 14 new members ... with more to come.
Democrats are taking satisfaction from their victory in Pennsylvania-12, where they held onto the seat of deceased Rep. John Murtha. But the obvious reason for their success is that Democratic turnout was boosted by a ferocious statewide Senate primary that drew out 1.05 million voters while the Republican contest — never seriously contested — brought a paltry 800,000 to the polls. With no statewide reason to vote, local PA-12 Republicans stayed home while their Democratic neighbors flocked to the polls to vote against Specter (a joy not to be missed).
The Democratic victory in PA-12 also underscores a more fundamental point, which is that incumbency is a huge liability in 2010. It is simply better to come from nowhere to run this year than to seek to keep a seat in this totally discredited Congress.
Rand PaulRand PaulCarter pledges probe of sex assault testimony Rand Paul wants to legalize cooperation Dem fears Iran nuke deal gives license to back Saudis MORE’s success in Kentucky in toppling establishment Senate candidate Trey Grayson in the Republican primary — along with the Bennett defeat in Utah — shows that this anti-politician sentiment cuts across party lines.
The fact that President Obama let the Congress write the 2,000-page bill in public and that Reid and Pelosi negotiated for votes in front of the media has amplified voter anger at Congress. Watching the deals being hatched and votes switching provides too much for the electorate to stomach. Now it is expressing its discontent with the legislative shenanigans it has had to watch. This year is not just an anti-Democrat year. It is an anti-incumbent year.
Morris, a former adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill ClintonBill ClintonTrump aide: We’re prepared to hit Clinton with Lewinsky Trump: Clinton 'dishonest' and an 'enabler' For Clinton, there's really only one choice for veep MORE, is the author of Outrage, Fleeced and Catastrophe. To get all of his and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by e-mail or to order a signed copy of their latest book, 2010: Take Back America — A Battle Plan, go to dickmorris.com. In August, Morris became a strategist for the League of American Voters, which is running ads opposing the president’s healthcare reforms.