Mark Mellman

The natural state of an election involving an incumbent, particularly a presidential election, is to be a referendum on that incumbent. 

With a tight race expected for the White House, control of both chambers of Congress at stake and many of the marquee House and Senate contests taking places in traditionally red presidential states, discussions of split-ticket voting are everywhere. T

What do job approval ratings portend about a president’s reelection prospects? 

I admit it: I underestimated Newt Gingrich, who has established himself as the Freddy Krueger of politics, repeatedly left for dead but always able to resurrect himself (at least, so far). 

As a graduate student, I designed a research project that required me to watch hundreds of hours of network television news broadcasts from the 1960s and ’70s. 

During Newt Gingrich’s surge I was reminded that despite the egos in our little community, candidates count a lot more than consultants and staff. Gingrich languished at the bottom with his all-star team in place, only to rise without them. Meanwhile, they moved to Rick Perry, who promptly plummeted with the all-stars on board. I’m not suggesting a causal link, just that the ability of consultants to change the course of mighty political rivers and bend campaign steel in their bare hands is more than a little overstated.

Newt’s current slide imparts yet another lesson about candidates — to say they are important is not to say they are always right.

The Republican Party is now choosing between a candidate distrusted by its base and one despised by its elite. It’s developing into a civil war.

Last week I began attempting to answer the question posed by a New York Times Magazine cover — “Is Obama Toast?” — arguing that dynamics, both structural and strategic, gave the president a better-than-even chance of reelection. 

If Barack Obama is “toast,” as one now-infamous headline conjectured, why is the broadest-based forecast (Pollyvote) projecting the president will be reelected with 51.1 percent of the vote?

While we cannot afford complacency in battling against privation and injustice, Thanksgiving offers an opportunity to express our gratitude for all that has been achieved in those struggles.