By Mark Mellman - 02/08/12 01:03 AM EST
With a tight race expected for the White House, control of both chambers of Congress at stake and many of the marquee House and Senate contests taking places in traditionally red presidential states, discussions of split-ticket voting are everywhere. The conventional wisdom: Ticket-splitting is rare.
Not so fast.
Some states are much more apt to split than others. Montana, where one of the premier Senate races of the cycle pits Sen. Jon TesterJon TesterSenate Dems push Obama for more Iran transparency Bayh jumps into Indiana Senate race Six senators call on housing regulator to let Congress finish housing finance reform MORE (D) against Rep. Denny Rehberg (R), produced split decisions over half the time. North Dakota, the scene of another hot race, between Heidi HeitkampHeidi HeitkampFeds weigh minimum train crew sizes Senate Dems push Obama for more Iran transparency Emerging technology-based consensus may help clear the air MORE (D) and Rick Berg (R), splits its decisions exactly 50 percent of time. Missouri, where Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire McCaskillDems begin ‘treason’ talk against Trump The Republicans' hypocrisy on minimum wage Watchdog faults Energy Department over whistleblower retaliation MORE (D) faces a showdown contest, splits more than 40 percent of the time. History suggests that what happens at the top of the ticket in these states will tell us precious little about the outcome of these Senate races.
By contrast, Kansas, Utah, Wyoming and North Carolina have only split once each over the last century.
Of course, 100 years is an exceptionally long time. Has the trend altered or abated? In the 2008 cycle, only 20 percent of races produced split decisions, as did 21 percent in 2004. Those years alone might suggest ticket splitting is in decline from the 30 percent average over the century. In 2000, though, the rate was an above-average 32 percent. Two data points do make a line (as we all learned in high school geometry), but they don’t necessarily constitute a trend.
Ticket-splitting is actually a process that takes place at the level of the individual voter, so survey data constitute a more appropriate test. Has the number of ticket-splitters changed? According to the American National Election Studies, not very much. In 2008, ANES found 17 percent of voters splitting their tickets between president and House (the chamber they track). That is down from a high of 30 percent in 1972, when Dixiecrats still abounded and George McGovern topped the ticket. But the 2008 level matched that in 2004 and 2000 and was higher than in any year from 1952 (the start of the time series) through 1968. No evidence of a clear, sustained downward trend.
Voters proved quite adept at splitting their tickets in individual races. In split-happy Montana, exit polls tell us Sen. Max BaucusMax BaucusGlover Park Group now lobbying for Lyft Wyden unveils business tax proposal College endowments under scrutiny MORE (D) garnered the votes of 94 percent of those who cast ballots for President Obama but also won a 52 percent majority of those who voted for John McCainJohn McCainRepublican foreign policy advisers call on Congress to probe DNC hack Trump’s minimum wage two-step confuses business groups, advisers Dems fear Trump arguments on terrorism MORE. In 2004, Byron Dorgan (D), running in North Dakota, the queen of split decisions, accomplished a similar feat, capturing 98 percent of Kerry voters and 52 percent of Bush’s. An unfair test, you say — longtime entrenched incumbents.
In Louisiana, one of the most conservative states in the country, Sen. Mary LandrieuMary LandrieuBrazile’s new role? Clean up DNC mess oil is changing the world and Washington Ex-Sen. Kay Hagan joins lobby firm MORE (D) took 96 percent of Obama voters and 24 percent of McCain supporters, enough to win. In an open-seat contest in Colorado, Ken Salazar (D) piled up 93 percent of Kerry voters on top of 11 percent of Bush supporters to eke out a victory.
Ticket splitting is not a one-way street. Even as Obama was cruising to victory in Maine, Sen. Susan CollinsSusan CollinsTim Kaine backs call to boost funding for Israeli missile defense The Trail 2016: Words matter Lobbyists bolting Trump convention early MORE (R) picked up 40 percent of his voters while holding 94 percent of McCain’s.
Partisanship remains the central organizing principle of politics, so most voters vote with their party, most of the time, yielding lots of straight ticket voting. However, even in an era when partisan tides run strong, voters seem perfectly capable of distinguishing the candidates they like from those they don’t, regardless of how they vote for president.
Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982. Current clients include the Majority Leader of the Senate and the Democratic Whip in the House.