Back in late April, Sen. John CornynJohn CornynTrump wall faces skepticism on border No Congress members along Mexico border support funding Trump's wall Obama-linked group launches ads targeting Republicans on immigration MORE (Texas), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), bragged about his party’s chances in what he called the Senate’s three “trophy seats”: President Obama’s former seat in Illinois, Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenWarren builds her brand with 2020 down the road AACR’s march on Washington Obama to attend Pittsburgh Steelers owner's funeral MORE’s former seat in Delaware and Majority Leader Harry ReidHarry ReidWarren builds her brand with 2020 down the road 'Tuesday Group' turncoats must use recess to regroup on ObamaCare Dem senator says his party will restore 60-vote Supreme Court filibuster MORE’s seat in Nevada. In addition to getting Republicans closer to the Senate majority, winning those elections would prove a propaganda bonanza — increasing the embarrassment Democrats suffered after losing Teddy Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts.
The midterms are still the GOP’s to lose, but the party’s fortunes have reversed in those three “trophy” seats.
They might’ve been better off with a teabagger.
It turns out Kirk is a real-life Walter Mitty, incapable of opening his mouth without crafting an alternate fantasy life. The focus on Kirk’s lies has taken much of the sting off his attacks on Democrat Alexi Giannoulias as a “mob banker,” and they seem locked in a race to the bottom.
In Delaware, Castle’s ignominious primary loss transformed a near-guaranteed Republican pickup into a near-guaranteed Democratic hold. While grassroots conservatives rally to GOP nominee Christine O’Donnell, sentient Republicans realize that the nomination of O’Donnell — an anti-masturbation activist who admits to having once worshipped Satan — has ceded the seat to the Democrats.
And in Nevada, where Harry Reid seemed sure to lose just a few months ago, the GOP handed him a lifeline by selecting the Tea Party-fueled Sharron Angle as his opponent. Angle has subscribed to Bircher conspiracy theories against fluoridated water and once campaigned against black uniforms for her local high school football team because the color is “thoroughly evil.” While Reid’s favorability ratings are in the gutter to the point where he usually would have no business being reelected, he’s inched ahead of Angle in the polls, and is now flirting with passing 50 percent support — all thanks to the Tea Party.
Without those trophy seats, the GOP is that much further away from the real trophy — the majority. With guaranteed pickup opportunities in North Dakota and Arkansas, and solid opportunities in California, Colorado, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin and even West Virginia (a Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday shows the Democratic nominee, popular Gov. Joe ManchinJoe ManchinPicking 2018 candidates pits McConnell vs. GOP groups Manchin: Trump should make his clothes in West Virginia Sanders supporter to run against red-state Democrat MORE, trailing his relatively unknown Republican challenger), a GOP Senate majority is tantalizingly close. But they can’t get there without the trophy seats.
Furthermore, the NRSC’s first big ad blitz this cycle wasn’t in a Democratic-held seat. Instead, it dumped at least $250,000 to defend the Kentucky seat currently held by outgoing Republican Sen. Jim Bunning. The right-wing U.S. Chamber of Commerce followed up with another $300,000. That’s over half a million that could’ve been spent playing offense. Instead, the GOP has to fight hard, and spend a lot, to bail out the Tea Party-backed Rand PaulRand PaulWe can put America first by preventing public health disasters Conservative activists want action from Trump McConnell: 'Big challenge' to pass ObamaCare repeal in Senate MORE.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s write-in bid in Alaska and Gov. Charlie Crist’s independent bid in Florida will also require party resources in states that should have been easy GOP holds. It’s clear that despite the energy they’ve brought to the game — and the intensity gap between Democrats and Republicans is a function of that energy — conservative activists have made the GOP’s path to 51 more difficult, rather than less. And there’s no trophy for that.
Moulitsas is the founder of Daily Kos and author of American Taliban: How War, Sex, Sin and Power Bind Jihadists and the Radical Right.