By Markos Moulitsas - 05/12/09 04:42 PM EDT
Groundwork for a poor showing is being laid this year. Despite multiple gambits by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnellMitch McConnellOvernight Finance: House rejects financial adviser rule; Obama rebukes Sanders on big banks Senators roll out changes to criminal justice bill Sanders is most popular senator, according to constituent poll MORE to clear the way for a more electable candidate in Kentucky, incumbent Jim Bunning refuses to retire. In Illinois, Republican dreams of drafting Rep. Mark KirkMark KirkElizabeth Warren stumps, raises funds for Duckworth GOP blocks slate of Obama judicial nominees Durbin: McConnell should move criminal justice bill next month MORE, one of the few House Republicans left representing a Democratic district, were recently dashed as Kirk opted to stay in the House. There’s Pennsylvania and Sen. Arlen Specter’s party switch, of course, and even Texas is shaky — rumors abound that incumbent Kay Bailey Hutchison may quit her seat early to focus on her gubernatorial run, giving Democrats a mid-cycle pickup opportunity.
That is, if he makes it out of his primary. Like Pennsylvania, Florida’s primary is closed, giving the state’s conservative activists an outsized voice in determining their nominee. And like Pennsylvania’s Specter, Crist is seen as an apostate for supporting and campaigning for President Obama’s stimulus bill.
“Charlie Crist left us,” said Tony DiMatteo, a Republican state committeeman from Pinellas County. “We don’t need another Arlen Specter. We need Republican senators, and Marco RubioMarco RubioRubio: Trump has 'improved significantly' House GOP campaign arm accuses '60 Minutes' of trespassing Republicans who vow to never back Trump MORE would be one of those senators.”
Rubio is a 37-year-old Cuban-American lawyer and former Speaker of the Florida House straight out of central casting for telegenic young Republicans. And his message is one that will resonate with the increasingly isolated and fringe conservative base, one that cheered Specter’s exit and is now clamoring for Maine’s two Republican senators to follow suit. Indeed, Rubio is one of them: “If you agree with Susan CollinsSusan CollinsGOP women push Trump on VP pick Sanders is most popular senator, according to constituent poll Senate Dem takes on drugmaker: ‘It’s time to slaughter some hogs’ MORE or Olympia Snowe on some of these issues, you might as well become a Democrat.”
A Mason-Dixon poll from early April found just 23 percent of Republicans would definitely vote for Crist, compared to 18 percent who would “definitely not.” There’s a lot of room there for Rubio to exploit. “I don’t think we have a shrinking movement, we have a shrinking party,’’ says Rubio, countering calls from some in the GOP to moderate its unpopular positions. “If the Republican Party is not going to be an effective and authentic alternative to what the Democratic Party is offering, it will continue shrinking.”
Conservative talk radio has been savaging Crist, and the Club for Growth appears eager to engage. “America faces the prospect of unsustainable spending under President Obama, making it all the more important to support candidates who will reduce the debt and lower the tax burden,” said Club President Chris Chocola. “Speaker Rubio’s announcement is good news for Florida’s families and businesses, and I welcome his entry in the race.”
Crist may be popular statewide, but that is of little interest to a conservative movement more interested in ideological purity than embracing its best chance at holding that Senate seat.
Moulitsas is founder and publisher of Daily Kos .