Senate GOP botches 2012

Heading into the 2012 cycle, the Senate looked brutal for Democrats. The majority party had 23 seats up for grabs, compared to just 10 for Republicans. The GOP’s incumbents were mostly in safe territory, while Democrats had to defend a disproportionate number of seats in battleground or hostile territory. 

Thus, the question last year wasn’t whether Republicans would make gains, but whether Democrats would hold on to their six-seat majority. Nobody is asking that anymore.

Republicans had three apparent surefire pickups earlier this cycle — open Democratic seats in Nebraska and North Dakota, and the Missouri seat held by freshman Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillDems seek to chip away at Trump’s economic record The Hill's Morning Report — Sponsored by PhRMA — Republicans see some daylight in midterm polling Trump urges anti-abortion advocates to rally in November MORE. Today, only Nebraska remains safely Republican. Missouri GOP nominee Rep. Todd Akin imploded with his “legitimate rape” comments, while North Dakota has remained stubbornly competitive thanks to former Democratic Attorney General Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampThe Hill's Morning Report — Sponsored by PhRMA — Republicans see some daylight in midterm polling Trump urges anti-abortion advocates to rally in November House votes to ease regulation of banks, sending bill to Trump MORE, who’s bucked her state’s red lean with effective retail politicking.

Top-tier GOP challengers in Florida, Hawaii, Michigan and New Mexico fizzled, while tens of millions of dollars in super-PAC attack ads did little to damage freshman Sen. Sherrod BrownSherrod Campbell BrownTrump on collision course with Congress on ZTE Pa. health secretary: 'Sustainable funding' needed to attack opioid crisis The Hill's Morning Report — Sponsored by PhRMA — How long can a Trump-DOJ accord survive? MORE (D) in Ohio against his joke opponent. 

Free-spending conservative millionaires have made Connecticut and Pennsylvania surprisingly competitive, yet Democrats retain smallish but comfortable advantages in those states. In Wisconsin, Rep. Tammy BaldwinTammy Suzanne BaldwinMcConnell: Midterms will be 'very challenging' for GOP Vukmir gets boost with Wisconsin Senate GOP primary endorsement  GOP senate candidate dismisses 'fake outrage' over remarks against Democratic veterans MORE (D) is clinging to a tiny advantage thanks to former Gov. Tommy Thompson’s (R) incompetent campaigning and lack of cash.

That leaves 2006’s closest Senate races: In Montana, freshman incumbent Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterPro-Trump super PAC raises .5 million in 6 weeks Overnight Finance: Trump signs Dodd-Frank rollback | Snubs key Dems at ceremony | Senate confirms banking regulator | Lawmakers lash out on Trump auto tariffs Trump signs Dodd-Frank rollback MORE (D) and Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) have been tied the entire cycle and will go down to the wire. But in Virginia, what was a neck-and-neck race is now a clear Democratic advantage for Democratic former Gov. Tim KaineTimothy (Tim) Michael KaineKaine demands answers on Pentagon missions in Africa Lawmakers push for House floor debate on war authorization Defense bill moves forward with lawmakers thinking about McCain MORE over the guy who lost this seat six years ago, George “Macaca” Allen. 

Thus, Democrats might lose as little as one seat, and at most four (Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota and Wisconsin). They’re also playing more offense than expected.

Establishment Democrats were afraid to take on accidental Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) early this cycle. Now Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenRising star Abrams advances in Georgia governor race Progressive rise is good news for Sanders, Warren Juan Williams: Trump gives life to the left MORE is poised to easily win the seat next Tuesday. And in Maine, the surprise retirement of Olympia Snowe (R) has opened the way for left-leaning Independent Angus KingAngus Stanley KingFor .2 billion, taxpayers should get more than Congress’s trial balloons Overnight Health Care — Sponsored by PCMA — Trump hits federally funded clinics with new abortion restrictions Dem senators ask drug companies to list prices in ads MORE to pick up the seat. 

In addition to those sure pickups, Democrats have remained stubbornly competitive, thanks in large part to the Latino vote, in Arizona and Nevada. In Arizona, former Surgeon General Richard Carmona and Republican Rep. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeOvernight Energy: Reporters barred from Day 2 of EPA summit | Dems blame Trump for gas price increases | Massachusetts to get new offshore wind farm Jeff Flake: Trump has 'debased' the presidency Senate Democrats look for traction on gas prices MORE have both hovered around 45 percent of the vote in the polling aggregate. Meanwhile, appointed incumbent Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerKennedy retirement rumors shift into overdrive McConnell: Midterms will be 'very challenging' for GOP Singer Jason Mraz: Too much political 'combat' in Washington MORE’s slight polling advantage against Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley might be a mirage: In 2010, Sen. Harry ReidHarry Mason ReidMcConnell not yet ready to change rules for Trump nominees The Hill's Morning Report — Sponsored by CVS Health — Trump’s love-hate relationship with the Senate Trump to press GOP on changing Senate rules MORE (D) trailed in pre-election polling by 2.7 points in the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate. He won his race by 5.6 points. Obama outperformed the state’s aggregate polling by 6 points in 2008. If pollsters haven’t learned to better poll Nevada, Berkley might yet pull through.

Which leaves Indiana, where conservative primary voters exchanged longtime entrenched incumbent Sen. Dick Lugar for ideologue teabagger Richard Mourdock. The Republican has proven as crazy as Todd Akin, stating in a debate last week that a rape pregnancy was a gift from God. Yet another Republican’s bizarre beliefs about rape have made this a genuine Democratic pickup, despite Indiana’s red demographics.

Tally it up and the most likely outcome for Democrats is between losing two seats and gaining four, or between a 51-49 Democratic Senate (including independents) and a 57-43 one. In other words, the Senate GOP really botched 2012.

Moulitsas is the publisher and founder of Daily Kos (