Supercommittee politics

Many people are skeptical about the “supercommittee” that has been given a statutory mandate to solve the nation’s grim fiscal outlook.

Inside and outside the Washington Beltway, it is noted that recommendations from prior commissions on the debt and deficits have failed to become law. 

That is true, but the supercommittee is different. And the politics surrounding it are fascinating. An impasse will trigger cuts automatically to affect healthcare providers and the Pentagon, among others.

So there is a strong incentive for lawmakers to strike the “grand bargain” that eluded President Obama and GOP leaders in Congress last month. 

Yet there are daunting obstacles.

One is the make-up of the supercommittee. 

Senate Majority Leader Harry ReidHarry Mason ReidTrump presses GOP to change Senate rules Only thing Defense’s UFO probe proves is power of political favors Nevada Democrat accused of sexual harassment reconsiders retirement: report MORE (D-Nev.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellSenate tees up Yemen vote for Tuesday Senate confirms Trump's border chief House leaves out ObamaCare fix from must-pass funding bill MORE (R-Ky.) and House Speaker John BoehnerJohn Andrew Boehner4 reasons Mike Pompeo will succeed at Foggy Bottom The misunderstood reason Congress can’t get its job done GOP sees McCarthy moving up — if GOP loses the House MORE (R-Ohio) and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will each select three lawmakers for the panel. 

It is highly likely that all 12 chosen will be loyal to their party, hampering the chances of a bipartisan deal.

It’s hard to see how Rep. Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanSpending deal talks down to toughest issues, lawmakers say Schiff: I thought more Republicans would speak out against Trump Dem leaders pull back from hard-line immigration demand MORE (R-Wis.) and Sen. John KerryJohn Forbes KerryBreitbart editor: Biden's son inked deal with Chinese government days after vice president’s trip State lawmakers pushing for carbon taxes aimed at the poor How America reached a 'What do you expect us to do' foreign policy MORE (D-Mass.) could agree to a massive deficit-reduction plan. Could Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Sen. Orrin HatchOrrin Grant HatchSenate GOP: Legislation to protect Mueller not needed Week ahead: Lawmakers scramble to avoid another shutdown Lighthizer set to testify before Senate Finance on trade next week MORE (R-Utah)? Unlikely, especially with the parties bickering over what the supercommittee can and can’t do, especially on the perennially and rightly contentious issue of tax hikes.

Leaders must make their appointments to the supercommittee by Aug. 16. Reid went first on Tuesday by naming Sens. Patty MurrayPatricia (Patty) Lynn MurrayLiberals seek ouster of HHS official blocking abortions CBO: Bill to shore up ObamaCare would reduce premiums by 10 percent Congress must stabilize the ACA to stabilize small businesses MORE (D-Wash.), Max BaucusMax Sieben BaucusFarmers hit Trump on trade in new ad Feinstein’s trouble underlines Democratic Party’s shift to left 2020 Dems pose a big dilemma for Schumer MORE (D-Mont.) and Kerry. BoehnerJohn Andrew Boehner4 reasons Mike Pompeo will succeed at Foggy Bottom The misunderstood reason Congress can’t get its job done GOP sees McCarthy moving up — if GOP loses the House MORE is expected to announce his selections in the coming days.

The recent move by Standard & Poor’s to downgrade America’s credit rating, and the corresponding tumble in the stock market, has put pressure on Congress to act.

Under the parameters of the new law that Obama signed, the supercommittee must vote on its findings by Nov. 23. Lawmakers then have a month to review it, and vote on the debt-reduction provisions by Dec. 23. The bill cannot be amended and is not subject to a filibuster.

Interestingly, the White House will not be at the table. The only way the administration will get a vote on the proposal is if Vice President Biden is called on to cast a tie-breaking vote should the Senate split 50-50. Obama does have the right to veto the bill. 

But by and large, the ball is in the hands of a very unpopular entity. A recent poll by The New York Times and CBS found that disapproval of Congress is at an all-time high. That makes incumbents from both parties very nervous about losing their jobs, and fear is a great motivator.