Will the Senate immigration bill attract 70 or more votes?
That question has been analyzed from many angles in recent weeks.
Most, if not all, of the 54 senators who caucus with the Democrats are expected to vote “yes.” To get to 70, at least 16 of 46 Senate Republicans would also have to approve the Gang of Eight’s bill.
Speaker John BoehnerJohn BoehnerLobbyists bounce back under Trump Business groups silent on Trump's Ex-Im nominee Chaffetz won't run for reelection MORE (R-Ohio), no fan of the Senate legislation, plans on moving smaller immigration bills later this summer. But Sen. Charles SchumerCharles SchumerSchumer: 'Good for country' if Trump punts on border wall fight GOP senator: There will never be full U.S.-Mexico border wall GOP fundraiser enters crowded primary for Pa. Senate seat MORE (D-N.Y.) believes BoehnerJohn BoehnerLobbyists bounce back under Trump Business groups silent on Trump's Ex-Im nominee Chaffetz won't run for reelection MORE will feel the heat after the Senate acts.
In a Sunday interview on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Schumer said, “I could envision in the late summer or early fall if Boehner tries to bottle the bill up or put something in without a path to citizenship — if there’s no path to citizenship, there’s not a bill — but if he tries to bottle it up or do things like that, I could see a million people on the Mall in Washington.”
About a dozen Senate Republicans will vote “yes” or are likely to vote “yes,” and roughly 19 are expected to vote “no.”
That leaves 15 GOP senators on the fence, including Sens. Lamar AlexanderLamar AlexanderGroups warn of rural health 'crisis' under ObamaCare repeal Trump’s Army pick faces tough confirmation fight Trump faces risky ObamaCare choice MORE (Tenn.), Saxby ChamblissSaxby ChamblissGOP hopefuls crowd Georgia special race Democrats go for broke in race for Tom Price's seat Spicer: Trump will 'help the team' if needed in Georgia special election MORE (Ga.), Richard BurrRichard BurrGOP senator hits back at criticism of Russia probe Report: Senate's Russia probe understaffed Five questions for the House's new Russia investigator MORE (N.C.), Rob PortmanRob PortmanFive things to know about Trump's steel order Mexico: Recent deportations 'a violation' of US immigration rules EPA union asks Pruitt for meeting over talk of closing office MORE (Ohio), Jerry MoranJerry MoranAt the table: The importance of advocating for ABLE GOP lawmakers lead way in holding town halls Yahoo reveals new details about security MORE (Kan.), Pat Toomey (Pa.), John ThuneJohn ThuneDisconnect: Trump, GOP not on same page Seven major players in Trump's trillion infrastructure push Trump’s great tech opportunity is in spectrum sharing MORE (S.D.) and Roger WickerRoger WickerPicking 2018 candidates pits McConnell vs. GOP groups McConnell’s shining moment As US healthcare changes, preventative screenings can't stop MORE (Miss.).
A few of these lawmakers, such as Burr, Alexander and Chambliss, voted “no” on immigration reform bills in both 2006 and 2007.
But immigration legislation has momentum. The border security amendment crafted by Sens. Bob CorkerBob CorkerGroups warn of rural health 'crisis' under ObamaCare repeal Ringing the alarm in Congress: 20 million lives at risk due to famine Senators want more efficient way to get food aid to Africa MORE (R-Tenn.) and John HoevenJohn HoevenHeitkamp raises .6 million for reelection bid: report Combating opioid epidemic, repealing ObamaCare will hurt the cause Senate panel considers how to fund Trump’s T infrastructure package MORE (R-N.D.) has given it new life. But to get to 70, at least a handful of the undecided GOP senators are going to have to get off the fence and vote for it.