Dodd’s reelection race

For such a blue state, Connecticut has provided some real political drama in its recent Senate races.

The 2006 contest, in which Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) was ultimately reelected, had many twists and turns.

Sen. Chris Dodd’s (D) reelection race is far from over, but it could end up being just as compelling.

After a disastrous spring, Dodd’s political fortunes are on the upswing. Earlier this year, former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) was leading Dodd by 16 percentage points in a hypothetical match-up. In late May, the gap had shrunk to six points.

There are other candidates on both sides of the aisle seeking Dodd’s seat, so it is not certain that Dodd and Simmons will face off next November.

What is clear is that Dodd is facing the toughest political test of his career.

Dodd has the full backing of President Obama, who won Connecticut by 23 points. If Obama remains popular and makes several trips to the Constitution State next year, it could boost Dodd’s chances significantly.

Lieberman, who is admired by many Republicans and independents, told The Hill earlier this year that he strongly supports Dodd for reelection.

Yet there is plenty of bad news for Dodd. His fumbling in handling the AIG bonus controversy will undoubtedly be replayed in 2010. And the Senate Ethics Committee is still reviewing his connection to the Countrywide VIP mortgage program.

But most importantly, some voters in Connecticut are disenchanted with Dodd. The senator moved to Iowa to boost his 2008 presidential chances, and when his first-quarter 2009 fundraising numbers came in, it was reported that only a handful of donors were from Connecticut.

Dodd attracted some good press recently by moving the credit card reform bill to Obama’s desk. And he is playing a huge role in healthcare reform and is expected to craft regulatory reform legislation for the financial sector later this year.

Even though Dodd will continue to make national news, he will need to generate positive media coverage back home.

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) won his reelection because he focused on legislation that would help his home state. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) is taking a similar approach in his 2010 reelection bid.

Dodd is in the middle of the action in Washington, and while that could be good if the bills advance, it could also be deadly if they are torpedoed.

Connecticut has more “unaffiliated” voters than registered Democrats or registered Republicans. As Lieberman illustrated, wooing those independents is the key to securing another term.

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