Finger on the trigger

There has been much recent discussion about how the Senate will tackle healthcare reform. And in the last few days, there have been some lines drawn in the upper chamber that are revealing.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), for example, is against the idea of a public option being triggered if the private market falters. But Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), who has a very similar voting record, is open to a trigger. Meanwhile, Sen. Ben Nelson (Neb.), considered one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress, is also open to the trigger.

But despite all the attention on the Senate, healthcare reform will first be voted on in the House.

The main question facing Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), her committee chairmen and other leaders is: Will their bill call for a public option, and if so, will it go into effect only with a trigger clause?

Most, if not all, House Republicans will reject the Democratic bill — whether it calls for a robust public option, a trigger or no public option language at all. So Pelosi and her lieutenants must thread a needle between the liberals and centrists in her caucus so as to minimize defections.

If there is no public option language in the House bill, the public option is dead, because the Senate is leaning toward a co-op approach to overhauling the nation’s healthcare system.

But Pelosi is not ready to give up on some version of the government-administered healthcare. Not yet, anyway.

Pelosi, a shrewd legislative tactician, is a strong proponent of the public option, but is well-aware that criticism of it has been mounting in recent weeks. She also is closely monitoring comments from Nelson and Snowe on the trigger.

Assuming there is a replacement in the Senate this year for the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.), a triggered public option, in theory, could attract 61 votes, including all Democrats, Snowe and both Independents.

That is not much margin of error, especially with liberals such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) pushing hard for a strong public option.

Progressives in the House, including the Congressional Black Caucus, are pressing their leaders to move left on healthcare. The Senate is moving right.

Pelosi will need to put her mark down in the coming days.

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