What Snowe’s vote means

For months, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) held his cards close to the vest, keeping many on and off Capitol Hill guessing what was in his healthcare reform bill.

Some Democrats grew impatient, while many liberal groups pressed Baucus to embrace the public option. The senator took many arrows in the back and front.

After many missed deadlines, Baucus finally released his healthcare bill last month. Some liked it (such as Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, D-N.D.), some didn’t (including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.). The insurance industry panned it, but the Congressional Budget Office gave it a favorable score.

But when Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) voted in favor of it on Tuesday, one thing was made clear: Baucus has a strong hand.

Baucus’s bill was approved by his panel, 14-9, with Snowe the only Republican voting with all committee Democrats. Four other House and Senate panels have passed healthcare reform bills this year, but none of those bills, all of which include a public option, attracted any GOP support.

The Snowe vote was extremely important to the future of Baucus’s bill. If every Republican had voted no, many Democratic critics could have made a compelling argument that it should not be considered the lead healthcare bill because the left doesn’t like it and every panel Republican voted no.

President Barack Obama says he wants a public option, but he wants a bill more than a public option. He has stressed the need for bipartisanship and would much prefer a final bill that at least has some Republican support.

Snowe is against a public option, and she stressed on Tuesday that her vote in committee does not mean she will vote yes on the version that hits the Senate floor.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who wants to avoid invoking partisan budget reconciliation rules to pass healthcare reform, needs 60 votes.

There are 60 Democrats in the upper chamber, though it remains unclear if ailing Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) will be able to vote. There are also one or two centrist Democrats who may break off and oppose the final Democratic healthcare reform bill.

Reid needs Snowe’s support. The majority leader has the difficult task of first merging the Baucus bill with the legislation passed by the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee. If Reid hews too closely to the HELP bill, Snowe will vote no. If Reid can thread the needle, he’ll have to do it again in a House-Senate conference.

Democrats have a long way to go before they succeed in passing healthcare reform, but they have made significant progress in the last couple weeks.