Boehner’s travails

“We’re not babies who suck our thumbs,” said Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), contemptuously dismissing Minority Leader John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) suggestion on Monday that the bailout vote was defeated because of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) partisanship.

Rep. John Shadegg (R-Ariz.) expressed his disdain another way. “It was embarrassing for leadership of both parties to lose the bill,” he said, “so they went out and made a stupid claim.”

There was nothing mild or cautious about these comments. In them, two members of the House Republican Conference brusquely gave Boehner the back of their hand. Bachmann’s words drip with anger; Shadegg’s are veiled with a gossamer of bipartisan bashing, but nevertheless betray a deep lack of respect for the minority leader.

It does not seem possible that this week will do Boehner any good in his battle to keep his leadership job in the next Congress.

His ability to hang on has always depended on how many seats Republicans lose (or, implausibly, gain) on Nov. 4. How many losses would be regarded as a success? Five, maybe. Ten, possibly. But if defeat turns to rout — if the GOP conference is reduced by 15, 20 or more — Boehner will be gone.

This is not new; what is new is the frank contempt shown by his flock. True, Bachmann is made of fissile material, and Shadegg lost to Boehner in the 2006 race for majority leader.

But that does not mean either comment can be dismissed lightly. Indeed, Shadegg’s is particularly telling, partly because he probably is not a potential challenger to Boehner next year.

The suggestion that his notional boss acts stupidly reveals that Shadegg is so despairing of the direction of the conference that he cannot be bothered any longer with the deferential niceties. At worst, for Boehner, Shadegg’s words could be interpreted as a deliberate attempt to damage the hounded leader.

The one serious obstacle to speculating about who might take charge in a coup against Boehner — except for Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), who may be a bit tainted by being part of the existing officer corps — is that there are few obvious candidates for command in the ranks.

This and one more factor could save Boehner. It is the bailout vote itself, coming Friday. Monday was a debacle, with the GOP leadership bringing in 10 fewer votes than they thought they had for the financial rescue package. But Boehner has managed to add items from the GOP wish list, and if he manages ultimately to bring in sufficient votes to pass the plan, he may yet survive. He will show that he is capable of getting something done in extremely difficult circumstances.

It is hardly a reliable lifeline, but it is not quite clutching at straws.