Nowhere to hide

Sen. Ted Stevens’s (Alaska) conviction on all seven counts in his corruption trial on Monday felt like the final prop being knocked out from under the Republicans on Capitol Hill. The roof is now primed to fall in on them Nov. 4.

There is always doubt in democratic politics — only in tyrannies is the future certain — but it is difficult to see a glimmer of electoral hope for Republicans.

One can look to the precarious position of Reps. Chris Shays in Connecticut and Phil English in Pennsylvania and know the sinking feeling in GOP bellies if these two go down to defeat when early returns come out on the East Coast.

Sure, you perhaps counter, but that is the Northeast, where Republicans have been in retreat for decades.

OK, how about Sen. Roger Wicker, in trouble in Mississippi, of all places, or Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, in the fight of his life in Kentucky?

It’s more than a year since people began to suggest that no such Republican seat was safe. But when that talk started, it was more a provocative warning than a considered analysis.

Democrats have been doing so well in public opinion (compared to the GOP) for long enough that one could wonder a month or two (or six) ago whether they were peaking too early. Yet the party’s fortunes have continued to advance with no sign of retreat.

The wave of 2006, which brought Democrats six new Senate seats and 30 in the House, may be surpassed.

Perhaps not, but it is certainly a matter on which smart, well-informed people can disagree.

Senate Democratic campaign chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.) appears to be closing in on his filibuster-proof majority. Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, could beat the odds and usher in even more new members of the Dem caucus than did his predecessor, Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.).

President Bush sought to encourage the Republican National Committee on Tuesday, suggesting that the presidential race might still be won. But a year when Missouri and even Montana are in play, when the Democratic presidential nominee looks likely to win North Carolina, and when Virginia is not even looking competitive for the Republican — that is a year in which Republicans can do little but duck.