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Card-check showdown
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03/10/09 12:53 PM ET
There are some in the nation’s capital, including President Obama and Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), who have floated the possibility of a compromise on the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA).
Don’t bet on it.
This is a classic showdown between organized labor and industry. Neither side has expressed any interest in striking a deal, and both sides predict victory.
The legislation, introduced in both the House and Senate on Tuesday, would allow workers to bypass secret-ballot elections to form a union if a majority of them sign petition cards stating their intention to organize.
Wall Street is tracking EFCA closely. Soon after word spread on Monday that the bill would soon be introduced, the stock price of Wal-Mart and Home Depot dropped. Both retailers are lobbying hard.
Analysts warned investors that card-check legislation, if passed, would increase labor costs for many companies.
There is little doubt that EFCA has the votes to pass the House. But whether it has 60 votes in the upper chamber is unclear.
During the last Congress, every voting Democrat and Specter supported cloture on the bill, but the procedural motion fell way short.
But with the wave of Democrats who won in November, 60 votes may now be within reach.
Specter has not said how he will vote this time. The Pennsylvania senator, who voted for the stimulus bill, is once again being challenged by former Rep. Pat Toomey in the GOP primary. Unions know they can’t rely on his vote, but they may need it.
If Al Franken is seated, there will be 59 members who caucus with Democrats in the upper chamber, including Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
Yet there are some Democrats who may not opt to vote for cloture this time around, such as Sens. Evan Bayh (Ind.), Ben Nelson (Neb.) and Mary Landrieu (La.).
Wal-Mart is the largest private employer in Arkansas, which puts Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) and Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) in a tough spot. Their votes for cloture are also not assured.
On the other side of the aisle, there isn’t much hope of Republicans — other than Specter — crossing over.
Maine GOP Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins are both opposed to card-check, and retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-Ohio) has indicated he is still a “no.”
How hard will Obama press the Senate on this issue? He backs the bill, but knows how divisive the debate will be. And despite his rhetoric on compromise, Obama knows there can be no union-industry detente on the issue.
The Senate vote will be a cliffhanger, and while there are many forecasts on what will happen when the roll is called, no one really knows.
One thing is clear, however. The lobbying battle on card-check will go down as one of the fiercest Washington has ever seen.
Don’t bet on it.
This is a classic showdown between organized labor and industry. Neither side has expressed any interest in striking a deal, and both sides predict victory.
The legislation, introduced in both the House and Senate on Tuesday, would allow workers to bypass secret-ballot elections to form a union if a majority of them sign petition cards stating their intention to organize.
Wall Street is tracking EFCA closely. Soon after word spread on Monday that the bill would soon be introduced, the stock price of Wal-Mart and Home Depot dropped. Both retailers are lobbying hard.
Analysts warned investors that card-check legislation, if passed, would increase labor costs for many companies.
There is little doubt that EFCA has the votes to pass the House. But whether it has 60 votes in the upper chamber is unclear.
During the last Congress, every voting Democrat and Specter supported cloture on the bill, but the procedural motion fell way short.
But with the wave of Democrats who won in November, 60 votes may now be within reach.
Specter has not said how he will vote this time. The Pennsylvania senator, who voted for the stimulus bill, is once again being challenged by former Rep. Pat Toomey in the GOP primary. Unions know they can’t rely on his vote, but they may need it.
If Al Franken is seated, there will be 59 members who caucus with Democrats in the upper chamber, including Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
Yet there are some Democrats who may not opt to vote for cloture this time around, such as Sens. Evan Bayh (Ind.), Ben Nelson (Neb.) and Mary Landrieu (La.).
Wal-Mart is the largest private employer in Arkansas, which puts Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) and Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) in a tough spot. Their votes for cloture are also not assured.
On the other side of the aisle, there isn’t much hope of Republicans — other than Specter — crossing over.
Maine GOP Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins are both opposed to card-check, and retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-Ohio) has indicated he is still a “no.”
How hard will Obama press the Senate on this issue? He backs the bill, but knows how divisive the debate will be. And despite his rhetoric on compromise, Obama knows there can be no union-industry detente on the issue.
The Senate vote will be a cliffhanger, and while there are many forecasts on what will happen when the roll is called, no one really knows.
One thing is clear, however. The lobbying battle on card-check will go down as one of the fiercest Washington has ever seen.
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