The report outlines scenarios under which China’s emissions would plateau or peak in the 2025-2033 time frame and energy use would level off well before mid-century.
“There’s been a perception that China’s rising prosperity means runaway growth in energy consumption. Our study shows this won’t be the case,” said Mark Levine, director of the lab’s China Energy Group, in a statement.
The two main forecasts in the study variously show a plateau or at least much slower growth in energy demand beginning in the 2030-2040 time frame.
However, the greenhouse-gas forecasts rest on several assumptions about China’s ability to de-carbonize its energy sector, the summary notes, including a very steep drop in use of coal and major nuclear power expansion.
The whole study is available here.
China surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest greenhouse-gas emitter several years ago.