Can Mary Landrieu get to 60 votes on Keystone pipeline?

 

Embattled Sen. Mary LandrieuMary Landrieu oil is changing the world and Washington Ex-Sen. Kay Hagan joins lobby firm Republican announces bid for Vitter’s seat MORE (D-La.) and other supporters of building the Keystone XL pipeline appear to be one vote short of the 60 they need to win a key vote on the project on Tuesday.

Landrieu has 59 votes backing legislation to approve the project, and Sens. Jay RockefellerJay RockefellerLobbying world Overnight Tech: Senators place holds on FCC commissioner Overnight Tech: Senate panel to vote on Dem FCC commissioner MORE (D-W.Va.) and Angus KingAngus KingSenators roll out bipartisan gun proposal Dem Senate campaign chair endorses Clinton Obama nominates CIA watchdog to fill long vacancy MORE (I-Maine) appear to be her top targets to get to 60.

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The effort is crucial to Landrieu because of her runoff election in December against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who also backs the pipeline. Landrieu is seen as a decided underdog in the race, and Senate Democrats have scheduled Tuesday’s vote to try to give her a boost.

If she fails, it could be a death knell for her reelection hopes.

Supporters of Keystone had been targeting Sen. Carl LevinCarl LevinFight for taxpayers draws fire Gun debate shows value of the filibuster House won't vote on Navy ship-naming restrictions MORE (D-Mich.), but a spokesman for the senator told The Hill on Monday that he would vote no. 

Both sides are furiously working the phones in advance of Tuesday evening’s vote.

Proponents are “burning up the phone lines and e-mails trying to find that vote to support the procedural move,” Senate Majority Whip Dick DurbinDick DurbinSenate Dems link court fight to Congressional Baseball Game Dems: Immigration decision will 'energize' Hispanic voters Senate Dems rip GOP on immigration ruling MORE (D-Ill.) said Sunday.

Green groups are pushing right back, rallying outside of Landrieu's Washington, D.C. home on Monday morning. A small group of activists led by 350.org draped an inflatable pipeline across Landrieu's front yard. 

Every Republican in the chamber is expected to vote yes, meaning 15 Democrats must support it to reach the threshold of 60, which would cut off a filibuster by opponents.

Ten Democrats have joined Landrieu in co-sponsoring the legislation approving the pipeline: Sens. Joe ManchinJoe ManchinGun-control supporters plan next steps versus NRA 14 dead in West Virginia flooding Bipartisan gun measure survives test vote MORE (W.Va.), Kay HaganKay Hagan10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2016 Senate Republicans are feeling the 'Trump effect' Washington's lobby firms riding high MORE (N.C.), Heidi HeitkampHeidi HeitkampGun-control supporters plan next steps versus NRA McConnell quashes Senate effort on guns Senators roll out bipartisan gun proposal MORE (N.D.), Mark PryorMark PryorEx-Sen. Kay Hagan joins lobby firm Top Democrats are no advocates for DC statehood Ex-Sen. Landrieu joins law and lobby firm MORE (Ark.), Claire McCaskillClaire McCaskillOvernight Tech: Obama heads back to Silicon Valley | FCC meeting preview | Yahoo bans terror content | Zuckerberg on sit-in live streams Senator shares frustrating call with cable company Hate TV customer service? So does your senator MORE (Mo.), Jon TesterJon TesterBernie Sanders’s awkward return to the Senate Senators roll out bipartisan gun proposal Congress should stop government hacking and protect the Fourth Amendment MORE (Mont.), Mark WarnerMark WarnerDrone use growing in surprising ways Overnight Cybersecurity: Pentagon cyber operations in the spotlight Lawmakers sound alarm over decaying Memorial Bridge MORE (Va.), Mark BegichMark BegichSenate GOP deeply concerned over Trump effect Ex-Sen. Kay Hagan joins lobby firm Unable to ban Internet gambling, lawmakers try for moratorium MORE (Alaska), Joe DonnellyJoe DonnellyPost Orlando, hawks make a power play Overnight Cybersecurity: Senate narrowly rejects expanding FBI surveillance powers Senate narrowly rejects new FBI surveillance MORE (Ind.) and John Walsh (Mont.).

That leaves supporters needing to win four more votes to reach 60.

Here is a look at the key votes:


UNDECIDED

Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.)

Rockefeller is retiring and represents a pro-coal state where Keystone is popular. His office hasn’t indicated which way the senator will vote. 

Sen. Angus King (I-Maine)


A possible fence-sitter, King is “leaning no,” his spokesman said last week. That wiggle room leaves supporters with hope they might still be able to win his vote.

 

KEY DEM YES VOTES

Sen. Bob CaseyBob CaseyThe Hill's 12:30 Report Dems launch new effort on guns after Orlando carnage New bill would ban gun sales to those convicted of hate crimes MORE (Penn.)

Casey supported the pipeline earlier this year, and was one of the first to get behind Landrieu’s push last week. He will vote “yes” to approve Keystone on Tuesday.

Sen. Tom CarperTom CarperWhite House seeks distance from ISIS transcript edit White House: Redaction decision was all Justice Dem senator: CDC already has authority to study guns MORE (Del.)

Will vote “yes,” in favor of the pipeline on Tuesday. He said “enough already” on Thursday. “Let's clear the decks” and start talking about other issues, Carper said.

Green groups like 350.org are now pressuring Carper to vote against the Keystone pipeline.

Sen. Michael BennetMichael BennetTed Cruz chooses sides in Colorado Senate primary The Trail 2016: Reversal of fortunes Senate compromises on Russian rocket engines MORE (Colo.)

Bennet brought the vote total in favor of Keystone to 59 on Friday when Landrieu told reporters that Bennet “feels very strongly” about Keystone, and that he would support the bill. 

Senate Democrats have decided to hold the Keystone vote as part of a bid to help Landrieu in her runoff election for the Senate next month against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.).

 

KEY DEM NO VOTES

Sen. Bill NelsonBill NelsonSenate narrowly rejects new FBI surveillance Senators roll out bipartisan gun proposal Dems blast Republicans after failed gun votes MORE (Fla.)

Nelson, who was courted by Sen. John HoevenJohn HoevenSenate panel approves funding boost for TSA Overnight Energy: Senate Dems block energy, water bill a third time Bison declared national mammal MORE (R-N.D.) and Landrieu, will vote “no” on the Keystone bill, his spokesman said Friday. Nelson supports the pipeline but only with a ban on exporting the oil it transports.

Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.)

The freshman senator, while a long-shot, was on the list of possible flips for Keystone supporters until he publicly came out against the pipeline over the weekend.

Booker said he will vote no on Tuesday when asked by a Twitter follower. “I am a firm NO against the KXL,” he tweeted to another.

Sen. Chris CoonsChris CoonsOvernight Defense: GOP blasts latest Gitmo transfer | Boeing defends Iran Air deal Key Dem: US-Iran relations may get worse before they get better The Hill's 12:30 Report MORE (Del.) 

Coons also said he would vote against approving the project. On Thursday, Coons’s office said the senator is frustrated with the Keystone review but will vote against the authorization bill next week because it isn't Congress’ role to issue construction permits.

Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharDozens of senators push EPA for higher ethanol mandate Brother may I? Congress must reform senseless drug regulation Caution: drug competition not allowed MORE (Minn.)

Klobuchar could have been a hopeful flip, but her office was quick to say she would not be voting in favor of the pipeline. Klobuchar has not voted yes before and is not a yes now, according to her spokeswoman.

Sen. Carl Levin (Mich.)

Levin had increasingly been seen as a possible yes vote, but he told reporters on Monday that he would vote no. A spokesman for his office confrmed his no vote to The Hill. 

"I'm voting against the pipeline because it bypasses the environmental impact statement, which should not be bypassed," Levin said, according to the Washington Examiner. 

 

This story was updated at 4:47 p.m.