By Vicki Needham - 06/08/10 07:02 PM EDT
Increasing the tax rate on carried interest also could reduce the overall value of the nation's commercial real estate assets and result in an increase in commercial mortgage default rates, the study said.
Maintaining the same policies could also save between 37,000 and 128,000 jobs, according to the study.
But lawmakers are under pressure to find tax revenue, specifically from the financial sector, and have been eyeing carried interest as an option.
During the past 30 years, annual invested equity rose from $723 million in 1980 to $49 billion by 2009. In 2000, a record $137 billion was invested in more than 7,000 businesses, according to the study.
The study looked at the direct effect of a percentage point increase in the tax rate on private equity investment, which amounted to a $1.8 billion decline in investment.
A 14.7 percentage point increase in the tax rate from an estimated 23.8 percent in 2013 to 38.5 percent, as proposed by the House bill, would result in a $27 billion decline in investment.
A second equation shows that for every percentage point increase in the marginal tax rate there would be a 1.07 decline in investment. Based on 2009 levels of investment, that would result in an annual investment reduction of $7.7 billion.