Money in the Morning

JULY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OUT AT 8:30 A.M. Economists predict rate to rise from 9.5 percent to 9.6 percent and a loss of 60,000 jobs due to the end of temporary census work. Private firms should add 100,000 jobs. WSJ:

Unemployment claims rose unexpectedly last week, forcing a slight dip in markets Thursday. AP:

President Obama will give remarks on the economy at 11:40 a.m. at Gelberg Signs in Northwest D.C.

White House guidance: “Gelberg Signs is also expanding and making new investments in their equipment and technology thanks to two Small Business Administration loans.”

Obama told CNBC Thursday he's confident there’ll be no double-dip recession.

WaPo editorial hits Dem jobs bill: “The crusade for an education jobs bill, led by the Obama administration and Democratic leaders in Congress, has always struck us as more of an election-year favor for teachers unions than an optimal use of public resources.”

ROMER OUT AS SENIOR WH ECONOMIST -- Christina Romer, chairwoman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, announced that she’ll resign Sept. 3. Her statement: “While I look forward to returning to research and teaching, the opportunity to help shape economic policy these past 20 months, and to work with the other members of the economic team and my colleagues on the CEA, is one I will always cherish.”

WSJ’s David Wessel gets Romer interview.

On her early 2009 estimate the the jobless rate would top out around 8 percent:  "I certainly hoped it would be lower. The world deteriorated between November 2008 when I started [and the initial estimates were made] and when we took office January 21.”

On stimulus efforts: "Where we are today is certainly not good. But in the absence of the actions taken by the Fed, the actions taken by the regulators and the Recovery Act, the economy would have been even more terrible."

On Summers: “If anyone had told me that I'd come to view Larry Summers as one of my dearest friends, I never would have believed it. But I do."

Wessel and WaPo’s Lori Montgomery float Austan Goolsbee, a CEA member and Obama ‘08 campaign veteran, as a potential successor.

BATTLE OF THE PAULS: Krugman takes on Ryan’s “Roadmap.”

ALSO IN NYT... “Wall Street’s version of the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.” Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs sees slowdown, higher unemployment and risk of deflation in second half of 2010. Richard Berner of Morgan Stanley sees more growth and more employment.

SIX AND COUNTING -- Rep. Zach Wamp (R) lost a five-way Tennessee gubernatorial primary Thursday. He’s the sixth appropriator to lose a primary race in 2010, a year when both parties are looking to curtail discretionary spending. The victor, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, will face Democrat Mike McWherter in the general election.

The other appropriators to lose: Sen. Robert Bennett (R-Utah) (reelection), Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas)  (governor), Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.) (reelection), Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) (reelection), Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-Kan.) (Senate).

Wamp’s concession speech: “There’s a lot of anxiety and anger about what’s happened in Washington, D.C., and I couldn’t control that.” AP:

SEN. LINCOLN JOINS GOP PUSH TO REPEAL HEALTH BILL TAX PROVISION. Republican bill would pull back the requirement that businesses file IRS forms when they buy goods exceeding $600. Lincoln is the first Dem to sign on. The Hill’s Healthwatch:

Fannie Mae sees its losses shrink -- but still plans to ask for more aid.

Financial instruments backfire on Bennet. Gretchen Morgenson on exotic financial products used by Denver schools to close a pension gap but instead resulted in more debt. The schools superintendent who pushed the strategy was Michael Bennet (D), now a senator.

Senate to deal with small biz bill after recess. Majority Leader Reid has set a September vote on the lending bill for small firms.