Money in the Morning

AP LEDE: "It's starting to feel like another recession."

"Businesses are ordering fewer goods. Home sales are the slowest in decades. Jobs are scarce, and unemployment claims are rising. Perhaps most worrisome, manufacturing activity, which had been one of the economy's few bright spots, is faltering."

The wire story comes after reports Thursday showed that durable-goods orders from June to July rose 0.3 percent, less than the 3 percent expected, and new home sales dropped 12.4 percent instead of holding steady.


Mark Zandi says odds of another recession are one-in-three, calls for temporary extension of Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.

Nouriel Roubini puts double-dip odds at 40 percent, projects GDP growth of less than 1 percent in third quarter.

Goldman Sachs: 25-30 percent.


WaPo's Neil Irwin: "With statistics due out Friday that are expected to show the economy grew much less than estimated in the second quarter of the year, Fed-watchers are hoping Bernanke's comments later that day in Jackson Hole, Wyo., will instill confidence that he has a plan and can act decisively if the economy continues to deteriorate. They warn that recent conflicting signals from Fed insiders may even be contributing to economic weakness by spooking financial markets.

NYT's Sewell Chan: "It is not known what Mr. Bernanke will say [Friday], but some insight may come from an episode in his past: his concern, soon after he became a Fed governor, that the economy was at risk of deflation as the nation gradually recovered from the dot-com bust a decade ago."

Former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder says the Fed is almost out of tools to help the economy.

Fun link of the day. Roy Blunt channels Old Spice to find interns.

FINANCIAL REGS: Banks will still be able to make risky deals under Wall Street reform act. NYT:

SEC gives shareholders more power over corporate boards.

WH still against extending tax cuts for wealthy. VP Biden says GOP argument to prolong cuts for the "super rich" is "malarkey."

President Obama takes a break from his vacation to talk economy with Geithner and Summers, a day after House GOP Leader John Boehner called for the ouster of the two economic aides.

Liberals call for Simpson to step down from fiscal commission. 

But... WH says Simpson isn't going.

The IRS is going overboard in targeting bad tax preparers, Reps. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) and Mike Conaway (R-Texas) write in WSJ op-ed.