Krugman gives even odds on a government shutdown by 2012

 "I put 50 percent on a government shut down sometime in the next two years -- 1995, but worse," he told an audience at the Fiscal Choices conference hosted by several left-leaning groups. 

Krugman also predicted that political gridlock will make it near impossible for another bailout of the financial system if the economy backslides into an recession, or worse. 

"In that kind of environment, it's kind of hard to see a TARP 2," he said. "It's hard to imagine that we will have the political consensus to do this."