Democratic and Republican leaders in the Senate on Tuesday sought to distance themselves from deficit talks being held by a small, bipartisan group of lawmakers.
The swift pushback, delivered by aides, came after The New York Times reported in a front-page, above-the-fold story that Senate leaders were closing in on a deal to avert the so-called “fiscal cliff.”
The leaders’ move to keep those discussions at arm’s length underscores the difficulty of reaching a bipartisan agreement on taxes and reducing the deficit.
Senate leaders believe that any preparation by lawmakers in advance of November’s election could be helpful, aides from both sides of the aisle said Tuesday.
But leadership is not endorsing any ideas being floated by members of the Senate’s Gang of Eight, a group searching for the elusive grand deficit bargain.
Lawmakers and aides say that real negotiations on how to deal with the fiscal cliff can’t begin until after voters decide who will control the White House and Congress next year.
Gang of Eight members, for instance, have said that a win by GOP nominee Mitt Romney would sink their lame-duck ambitions. Romney indicated earlier this year that if he wins, he does not want Obama and Congress to make major decisions before he is sworn in to office.
The gang is contemplating a three-part plan to replace the $109 billion in across-the-board spending cuts and raft of tax increases — estimated to be worth $536 billion by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center — that would be implemented around the end of the year.
That plan is favored strongly by retiring Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), but the structure of it has not been agreed to by the Gang’s Republicans.
Conrad is pushing a three-part outline: first, avoid the fiscal cliff with a “down payment” of cuts and revenue, then instruct committees to come up with roughly $4 trillion in deficit reduction that would be guaranteed a Senate floor vote.
If the committees failed to act, a new “punishment” would be put into place — a structure similar to the 2011 debt-ceiling deal that created the supercommittee and paved the way for the looming automatic spending cuts.
Conrad has said the new deal would fall back onto a “balanced” plan like the one put forward by President Obama’s fiscal commission — not the across-the-board cuts as outlined by the looming sequestration.
The trigger would not be, Conrad said recently, “something so bad that nobody could live with it.”
Instead, he said, it would be a backup plan “to help you achieve the result necessary.”
Senate aides on Tuesday also made clear that the two parties continued to have stark divides on both the tax side — including over whether to retain all or just some of the Bush-era tax rates — and entitlement spending.
Stewart, for instance, stressed that McConnell would lean against any plan, like the Bowles-Simpson proposal, that raises taxes.
“He does not believe that raising taxes should be considered a solution to an out-of-control spending problem,” Stewart said. “And remember, until there is legislative text and a [Congressional Budget Office] score, it will be impossible to form an opinion on the merits of any particular proposal.”
Democrats were equally cool to the talks.
One senior Democratic aide said “nothing has buy-in from leaders at this point except to support the idea of people continuing to talk.”
Senate Majority Leader Harry ReidHarry ReidIf Gorsuch pick leads to 'crisis,' Dems should look in mirror first Senate confirms Mulvaney to be Trump’s budget chief Democrats declare victory after Puzder bows out MORE (D-Nev.) has said he wants a “big” deal in the upcoming lame-duck session that would put a multitrillion-dollar dent in the national debt.
But Reid also signed a letter last month with other Democrats that opposed using Social Security cuts in any debt deal. Meanwhile, Bowles-Simpson, the proposed Gang of Eight fallback, calls for cuts in Social Security benefits, and reins in other entitlement spending as well.
Reid disparaged the work of the gang of lawmakers last November, dismissing it as “happy talk” that had not been put into legislative language.
“If someone has a proposal about reducing the deficit, the debt, here’s my suggestion: Put it in bill form, in writing, not all these happy statements about what people think can be done,” Reid told reporters at the time. “I’m stunned by the Gang of Six that we hear so much about.”
Senate Majority Whip Dick DurbinDick Durbin McConnell: I’m very sympathetic to 'Dreamers' Senate Dems move to nix Trump's deportation order Dem senators call for independent Flynn probe MORE (D-Ill.), Conrad and Sens. Mark WarnerMark WarnerReport: Senate Intel Committee asks agencies to keep records related to Russian probe Comey meets Intel senators amid uproar over Trump-Russia ties Senate advances Trump's Commerce pick MORE (D-Va.), Saxby ChamblissSaxby ChamblissWyden hammers CIA chief over Senate spying Cruz is a liability Inside Paul Ryan’s brain trust MORE (R-Ga.), Tom CoburnTom CoburnCoburn: Trump's tweets aren't presidential The road ahead for America’s highways Rethinking taxation MORE (R-Okla.) and Mike CrapoMike CrapoTime for the feds to deregulate gun suppressors Senate votes to repeal transparency rule for oil companies Live coverage of Sessions confirmation hearing MORE (R-Idaho) made up the original Gang of Six. Sens. Mike JohannsMike JohannsTo buy a Swiss company, ChemChina must pass through Washington Republican senator vows to block nominees over ObamaCare co-ops Revisiting insurance regulatory reform in a post-crisis world MORE (R-Neb.) and Michael BennetMichael BennetSenate advances Trump's Commerce pick Senate Dems move to nix Trump's deportation order Senators to Trump: We support additional Iran sanctions MORE (D-Colo.) have bumped the Gang’s numbers up to eight.
The negotiating group has not expanded any further, sources said, although a wider group of centrists keeps tabs on their activities. This group includes defense hawks worried about the sequester, including Sens. Lindsey GrahamLindsey GrahamTrump’s feud with the press in the spotlight Senators eye new sanctions against Iran Republicans play clean up on Trump's foreign policy MORE (R-S.C.), Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Lamar AlexanderLamar AlexanderRepublicans play clean up on Trump's foreign policy GOP's ObamaCare talking points leave many questions unanswered Overnight Regulation: Trump's new Labor pick | Trump undoes Obama coal mining rule MORE (R-Tenn.).
The Gang of Eight has been unable to nail down the key ingredients of its plan and might not be able to until after the election. While the Gang’s members have set a $4 trillion goal for deficit reduction, they have not singled out a budget baseline, nor the scope of entitlement reforms.
“There is not anything completed for leaders to distance themselves from,” a Senate aide said.
Like Reid, influential conservative activist Grover Norquist has mocked the Gang for its lack of specifics.
Meanwhile, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max BaucusMax BaucusFive reasons why Tillerson is likely to get through Business groups express support for Branstad nomination The mysterious sealed opioid report fuels speculation MORE (D-Mont.) has been preparing for the post-election deficit debate by trying to develop plans of attack under different electoral scenarios.
Baucus meets regularly with officials like House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp (R-Mich.) and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, and has gotten together recently with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund.
Aides say they believe lawmakers will be able to hit the ground running come November, given the amount of deficit discussions that have occurred in recent years.
In addition to the failed supercommittee and Bowles-Simpson, President Obama and House Speaker John BoehnerJohn BoehnerFormer House leader Bob Michel, a person and politician for the ages Former House GOP leader Bob Michel dies at 93 Keystone pipeline builder signs lobbyist MORE (R-Ohio) tried to reach a broad deal last summer, while Vice President Biden has also led deficit talks.
“We won’t just be coming into this blind,” a Senate GOP aide said.
— This story was updated at 10:19 a.m.