Tax Policy Center releases 'dynamic' analyses of candidates' tax plans

Tax Policy Center releases 'dynamic' analyses of candidates' tax plans
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The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center (TPC) on Tuesday released analyses of Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpDems flip Wisconsin state Senate seat Sessions: 'We should be like Canada' in how we take in immigrants GOP rep: 'Sheet metal and garbage' everywhere in Haiti MORE’s and Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonIntel Dem decries White House 'gag order' after Bannon testimony 'Total free-for-all' as Bannon clashes with Intel members Mellman: On Political Authenticity (Part 2) MORE’s tax plans that take into account their macroeconomic effects.

The release comes after the Trump campaign complained that reports TPC released last week did not include “dynamic” scoring. TPC officials said that they had always planned to release dynamic analyses of the plans but that the release of macroeconomic analyses was delayed because of technical issues. The nonpartisan group came up with a long-term dynamic estimate in collaboration with the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

The Trump and Clinton campaigns have been sparring over their tax plans, which take opposite approaches. Trump’s tax plan would cut the top individual and corporate tax rates, while Clinton’s plan would raise taxes for high earners.

TPC Senior Fellow Ben Page said that “both of these plans have opposing effects” on incentives and deficits. Trump’s plan would initially increase incentives to save and invest but would increase deficits, while Clinton’s plan would decrease incentives to save and invest but would reduce deficits.

Because of these competing effects, the net effects “aren’t that large,” said Bob Williams, another TPC fellow.

Using the Wharton dynamic model, Trump’s plan would cost about $6 trillion in its first decade and about $10.3 trillion in its second decade. Trump’s plan would cost $6.2 trillion in its first 10 years and $8.9 trillion in its second decade under TPC’s “static” estimate that doesn’t consider economic effects.

Clinton’s plan under the Wharton dynamic model would raise $1.3 trillion in its first decade and $2.8 trillion in its second decade. That’s compared to raising $1.4 trillion in its first decade and $2.7 trillion in its second decade without considering economic effects.

TPC’s analyses only looked at the candidates’ tax plans and did not look at any spending changes the candidates have proposed.

The group noted in its reports that Trump has said he would make unspecified spending cuts and that the Trump campaign has said that other aspects of the candidate’s economic plan would increase revenues, which could offset some of the negative effects of rising deficits under the tax plan. On the other hand, Clinton’s spending proposals would cancel out the budget savings produced by her tax plan, so the macroeconomic effects of Clinton’s overall economic plan would be negative, TPC said.

At an event last week, Trump adviser Peter Navarro criticized TPC for not including analyses of the other parts of Trump’s economic plan. He also accused TPC of liberal bias.

But TPC and Wharton analysts refuted the allegations of bias and said that they are focused on getting the economics correct.