By Elise Viebeck - 06/05/14 06:13 PM EDT
Congressional budget scorekeepers estimated Thursday that only a fraction of the people without health insurance in 2016 will actually pay a penalty under ObamaCare's individual mandate.
In a new analysis, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said only 4 million of the 30 million who are expected to be uninsured in 2016 will pay a fine.
All told, the government is projected to collect $4 billion from individual mandate penalties in 2016, followed by $5 billion every year through 2024, according to the CBO.
A total of 23 million uninsured people will fall under the mandate's hardship and other exemptions.
The analysis accounted for people who will try to dodge the penalty, as well as the ability of the Internal Revenue Services to enforce it.
Republicans argue that the Obama administration has gone too far in allowing people to claim hardship exemptions.
People whose health plans were canceled, who had medical expenses they could not pay or who experienced a death in the family do not have to buy health insurance under ObamaCare, according to federal rules.