Study: Trump insurance proposal could lead to 3M people leaving ObamaCare

Study: Trump insurance proposal could lead to 3M people leaving ObamaCare
© Getty

A Trump administration proposal that would allow businesses to band together to buy insurance would shift more than 3 million enrollees out of ObamaCare's marketplaces and lead to premium increases, according to a new analysis released Wednesday. 

The administration's proposed rule would expand association health plans, which allow small businesses or self-employed individuals to band together to buy coverage.

ADVERTISEMENT
An analysis from health consulting firm Avalere estimates that 3.2 million enrollees would shift from ObamaCare's individual and small group markets to association health plans by 2022. 

As a result, by 2022 premiums for individuals buying health insurance through ObamaCare would increase by 3.5 percent and by 0.5 percent for small businesses that purchase plans through the law's small group market. 

These premium increases could result in 130,000 additional individuals becoming uninsured by 2022. 

This is because healthier enrollees would likely move from ObamaCare plans to the association health plans, which are expected to be less expensive because they're likely to cover fewer services.  

Avalere estimates that premiums in the association health plans will be $2,900 a year lower compared to ObamaCare's small group market and $9,700 a year less compared to the individual market. 

“The proposed rule would lead to millions of individuals and small businesses shifting into a new form of coverage, likely reducing their premiums, but leading to higher premiums in the markets they leave behind,” said Chris Sloan, senior manager at Avalere.