District by district - Ohio


Ohio-15

Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs. Steven Stivers (R)

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Kilroy is nine points behind Stivers, the 2008 Republican nominee, according to The Hill/ANGA poll. She received 38 percent to his 47, with 15 percent of likely voters undecided.

Her biggest problem appears to be among independent voters. The poll found Stivers beating Kilroy among independents by nearly a 2-1 advantage, 46 percent to 25.

Another 28 percent of independents remain undecided, while the majority of Democratic and Republican voters have broken for their party’s candidate.

All this doesn’t bode well for Kilroy, especially since a majority of independents (59 percent) disapprove of President Obama. A majority of them (54 percent) also prefer a divided government.

Though the poll shows Stivers with a lead, in 2008 the race came down to the wire, with Kilroy declared the winner in December after a long fight over provisional ballots.

She won by slightly more than 2,000 votes and became the first Democrat to represent the district in 42 years.

The poll was conducted Sept. 28-30, consisted of 404 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


Ohio-16

Rep. John Boccieri (D) vs. Jim Renacci (R)

Boccieri trails his Republican challenger by just three points — 42 percent to 39 — with 15 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill/ANGA poll.

But dissatisfaction with Congress in this district is high, particularly among independents. Eighty-five percent of independents strongly disapprove of the job Congress is doing.

Even though the race is close, the remaining undecided voters are largely Republican and independent, making it tough for Boccieri to make up much ground. Just 14 percent of remaining undecided voters are Democrats, while 33 percent are Republican and 41 percent independent.

An unusual dynamic in the district is that women, who tend to break for Democrats in general, tend to break for the Republican here; Renacci gets 45 percent of the female vote to Boccieri’s 36.

The poll was conducted Sept. 25-27, consisted of 401 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories

About the poll

GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight

Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election

Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican

Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines

Editorial: Knowing who will win

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