District by district - Arizona


Arizona-1

Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) vs. Paul Gosar (R)

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Kirkpatrick trails her Republican opponent by seven points, receiving 39 percent of the vote to Gosar’s 46, according to The Hill/ANGA poll. Twelve percent of likely voters remain undecided.

Gosar is a favorite of the Tea Party and was backed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin during the Republican primary.

The Tea Party was found to have a profound effect in this GOP-leaning district, with 56 percent of voters rating it favorably. Both Republicans and independents stated they were more likely to support a Tea Party-backed candidate on Election Day (56 percent of Republicans and 31 percent of independents).

Gosar also leads Kirkpatrick 2-to-1 among likely male voters. And he leads 43 percent to Kirkpatrick’s 37 among independents.

That deficit likely extends from voters’ dismal views of Congress and President Obama. Independents and Republicans expressed deep dissatisfaction with both Democratic-controlled branches. Moreover, 37 percent more Republicans than Democrats say they are “very passionate” about voting in November.

Kirkpatrick’s best hope is to win over female voters ages 35-54, who are largely undecided.

The poll was conducted Sept. 25-30, consisted of 403 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories

About the poll

GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight

Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election

Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican

Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines

Editorial: Knowing who will win

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