District by district: 12 freshman Democrats in danger

Arizona-1

Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) vs. Paul Gosar (R)

Kirkpatrick trails her Republican opponent by seven points, receiving 39 percent of the vote to Gosar’s 46, according to The Hill/ANGA poll. Twelve percent of likely voters remain undecided.

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Gosar is a favorite of the Tea Party and was backed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin during the Republican primary.

The Tea Party was found to have a profound effect in this GOP-leaning district, with 56 percent of voters rating it favorably. Both Republicans and independents stated they were more likely to support a Tea Party-backed candidate on Election Day (56 percent of Republicans and 31 percent of independents).

Gosar also leads Kirkpatrick 2-to-1 among likely male voters. And he leads 43 percent to Kirkpatrick’s 37 among independents.

That deficit likely extends from voters’ dismal views of Congress and President Obama. Independents and Republicans expressed deep dissatisfaction with both Democratic-controlled branches. Moreover, 37 percent more Republicans than Democrats say they are “very passionate” about voting in November.

Kirkpatrick’s best hope is to win over female voters ages 35-54, who are largely undecided.

The poll was conducted Sept. 25-30, consisted of 403 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

Colorado-4

Rep. Betsy Markey (D) vs. Cory Gardner (R)

Markey trails in this Republican-leaning district by a mere three points — 44 percent to 41, with 14 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill/ANGA poll.

It’s welcome news for Markey given that Republicans have trumpeted internal polling that has her down big.

But she may have difficulty finding new voters to win over. She has 89 percent of the Democrats’ support and is winning independents at 43 percent to Gardner’s 39. She even has a decent amount of Republican support, at 11 percent.
 
The poll was conducted Sept. 25-27, consisted of 391 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.


Illinois-11

Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D) vs. Adam Kinzinger (R)

Right now, the outlook for Halvorson appears grim. The Hill/ANGA poll found she trails Kinzinger by 18 points — 49 percent to 31. Another 18 percent of likely voters remain undecided.

Kinzinger also leads among most major demographic groups. He’s ahead by 26 points among male voters and by 11 percent among females, and leads in all age groups by 10 points or more. Kinzinger also holds a wide lead with independent voters — 53 percent to 24.

Undecided voters lean toward the right; 27 percent described themselves as Republicans compared to 16 percent who said they are Democrats.

The poll was conducted Sept. 28-30, consisted of 401 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


Maryland-1

Rep. Frank Kratovil (D) vs. Andy Harris (R)

Kratovil trails his Republican opponent by three points in a district President Obama lost by nearly 20 percent in the 2008 presidential race, according to The Hill/ANGA poll. And 15 percent of likely voters remain undecided.

These undecided voters, however, are divided on how they identify themselves. Twenty-seven percent say they are Democrats, 38 percent say they are independents and 35 percent say they are Republicans, which means it’ll be tough to predict how they’ll vote on Election Day.

Obama, unsurprisingly, garners low ratings in the district. Thirty-eight percent approve of the job he is doing, while 59 percent disapprove. These numbers could prove detrimental to Kratovil, as 70 percent say their opinion of Obama will influence their vote.

The other big issue in this race could be healthcare reform. Fifty-eight percent of voters said they’d like the law repealed.

Harris was the 2008 Republican nominee; Kratovil beat him by a mere 2,000 votes in a down-to-the-wire race on election night.

The poll was conducted Sept. 28-30, consisted of 400 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


Michigan-7

Rep. Mark Schauer (D) vs. Tim Walberg (R)

Schauer is in a dead heat with Walberg, a former member of the House, with both men holding 41 percent of the vote. Thirteen percent of likely voters remain undecided.

Schauer leads among female voters while Walberg leads among males. And with Democrats and Republicans split down party lines, independents will be a key factor in this race.

The poll found 19 percent of independents are undecided, compared to 8 percent of Republicans and 6 percent of Democrats. And in what could be bad news for Schauer, 82 percent of independents disapprove of the job Congress is doing.

Another possible challenge for Schauer is the makeup of undecided voters, who tend to be male and Republican. More men than women said they are likely to vote, and voter enthusiasm is also higher among Republicans: 85 percent of them said they are “very passionate” about voting, compared to 70 percent of Democrats.

The poll was conducted Sept. 25-27, consisted of 404 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


Nevada-3

Rep. Dina Titus (D) vs. Joe Heck (R)

Titus is more than holding her own in this district, trailing by just three points — 47 percent to 44 — while 6 percent of likely voters are undecided. This is one of the lowest percentages of undecided voters across the 12 competitive districts The Hill/ANGA polled.

Heck does hold a large lead among independents — 57 percent to 33. The trouble for Titus is that the remaining undecided voters lean Republican and the gender gap is working against her. She trails by 10 points among male voters, who are more highly motivated than female voters to turn out on Election Day, the poll found.

This was one of the few districts where Democrats and Republicans share equal enthusiasm about voting: 82 percent of Democrats said they are “very passionate” about voting, while 84 percent of Republicans said the same.

The poll was conducted Sept. 25-27, consisted of 403 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


New Mexico-2

Rep. Harry Teague (D) vs. Steve Pearce (R)

Teague trails Pearce, a former member of the House, by a mere four points, according to The Hill/ANGA poll. Teague received 42 percent to Pearce’s 46, with 10 percent of voters remaining undecided.

Teague's problem is his base. Pearce is peeling away 16 percent of Democrats. But Teague is winning independents 43 percent to 41. Only 86 percent of likely Democratic voters are committed to turning out on Election Day, while 97 percent of likely GOP voters said they would be at the polls.

The path to victory for Teague could be to tap into undecided voters — 39 percent are Democrats and 21 percent are independents. To do that, he'll have to overcome a traditional skepticism about one-party control that is causing some undecided voters to say they prefer a divided government.

Pearce is trying to reclaim his old seat. He was first elected in this district in 2002 but, in 2008, ran for the Senate and lost in the general election.

The poll was conducted Sept. 28-30, consisted of 401 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


Ohio-15

Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs. Steven Stivers (R)

Kilroy is nine points behind Stivers, the 2008 Republican nominee, according to The Hill/ANGA poll. She received 38 percent to his 47, with 15 percent of likely voters undecided.

Her biggest problem appears to be among independent voters. The poll found Stivers beating Kilroy among independents by nearly a 2-1 advantage, 46 percent to 25.

Another 28 percent of independents remain undecided, while the majority of Democratic and Republican voters have broken for their party’s candidate.

All this doesn’t bode well for Kilroy, especially since a majority of independents (59 percent) disapprove of President Obama. A majority of them (54 percent) also prefer a divided government.

Though the poll shows Stivers with a lead, in 2008 the race came down to the wire, with Kilroy declared the winner in December after a long fight over provisional ballots. She won by slightly more than 2,000 votes and became the first Democrat to represent the district in 42 years.

The poll was conducted Sept. 28-30, consisted of 404 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


Ohio-16

Rep. John Boccieri (D) vs. Jim Renacci (R)

Boccieri trails his Republican challenger by just three points — 42 percent to 39 — with 15 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill/ANGA poll.

But dissatisfaction with Congress in this district is high, particularly among independents. Eighty-five percent of independents strongly disapprove of the job Congress is doing.

Even though the race is close, the remaining undecided voters are largely Republican and independent, making it tough for Boccieri to make up much ground. Just 14 percent of remaining undecided voters are Democrats, while 33 percent are Republican and 41 percent independent.

An unusual dynamic in the district is that women, who tend to break for Democrats in general, tend to break for the Republican here; Renacci gets 45 percent of the female vote to Boccieri’s 36.

The poll was conducted Sept. 25-27, consisted of 401 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


Pennsylvania-3

Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D) vs. Mike Kelly (R)

Dahlkemper trails Kelly by double digits, but there's a large group of undecided voters who haven't made up their minds about either candidate.

Kelly is ahead by 13 points — 49 percent to 36 — while 15 percent of likely voters are undecided.

Dahlkemper’s biggest obstacle could be the fact that a majority of her constituents favor repealing the healthcare reform bill, which Dahlkemper supported. Almost 60 percent said they believe the legislation should be repealed.

Undecided voters feel this way by a margin of 45 percent to 33.

Dahlkemper trails Kelly in most demographic groups, and there doesn’t appear to be a gender gap in her favor. She trails Kelly by 15 percent among men and by 12 percent among women.

The poll was conducted Sept. 25-27, consisted of 401 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


Virginia-2

Rep. Glenn Nye (D) vs. Scott Rigell (R)

Nye is in a tough race to keep his seat, according to The Hill/ANGA poll. He’s down by six points, 36 percent to Rigell’s 42. Nineteen percent of likely voters remain undecided.

The poll found that 26 percent of independents say they are undecided, which makes them a key factor in the race. Independents who have made up their minds are almost evenly divided between the two candidates.

Rigell has touted his ties to the Tea Party movement but, overall among independent voters, only 18 percent said Tea Party ties would make them more likely to vote for a candidate; 78 percent said it would not make them more likely to support such a candidate. Overall, 44 percent of independent voters have an unfavorable view of the Tea Party.

But independent voters also believe, 52 percent to 26, that the presidency and Congress should be controlled by different parties.

Voter apathy could also prove a problem for Nye. Only 64 percent of Democrats say they are “very passionate” about voting in November, compared to 83 percent of Republicans and 66 percent of independents.

The poll was conducted Sept. 25-27, consisted of 397 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


Virginia-5

Rep. Tom Perriello (D) vs. Robert Hurt (R)

The Hill/ANGA poll found that Perriello trails Hurt by a single point — 44 percent to 45 — with 9 percent of likely voters undecided.

Perriello still has time to turn it around, but he'll have to do it with two key groups — women and independents. These groups remain the largest bloc of undecided voters, with 11 percent of women and 13 percent of independents undecided.

Voter enthusiasm could present a problem for Perriello: 80 percent of Republicans say they are “very passionate” about voting, while only 68 percent of Democrats describe themselves that way.

President Obama could be an albatross for his fellow Democrat this cycle. A majority of voters (54 percent) disapprove of the president's performance and, by a 3-to-1 ratio, respondents said their opinion of Obama will influence their vote this November.

The poll was conducted Sept. 28-30, consisted of 403 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories

About the poll

GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight

Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election

Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican

Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines

Editorial: Knowing who will win

District by
district results

Arizona
Colorado
Illinois
Maryland
Michigan
Nevada
New Mexico
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia