THE HILL POLL: A district-by-district analysis of results and interactive map


TNWAARWIILHIPANHMIWV
Tennessee 8
D: Roy Herron, 37%
R: Stephen Fincher, 47%
Washington 3
D: Denny Heck, 40%
R: Jaime Herrera, 42%
Arkansas 1
D: Chad Causey, 34%
R: Rick Crawford, 46%
Wisconsin 7
D: Julie Lassa, 35%
R: Sean Duffy, 44%
Illinois 10
D: Dan Seals, 49%
R: Robert Dold, 37%
Hawaii 1
D: Colleen Hanabusa, 41%
R: Charles Djou, 45%
Pennsylvania 7
D: Bryan Lentz, 39%
R: Patrick Meehan, 40%
New Hampshire 2
D: Ann Kuster, 42%
R: Charlie Bass, 45%
Michigan 1
D: Gary McDowell, 39%
R: Dan Benishek, 42%
West Virginia 1
D: Mike Oliverio, 42%
R: David McKinley, 39%

ARKANSAS-01

Republicans could end Dems’ 100-year lock on this seat

Democrats have held this seat for over a century, but Rep. Marion Berry’s (D-Ark.) retirement could mark the end of the party’s reign.

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The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll found that Republican Rick Crawford leads by 12 points, 46 percent to 34. Seventeen percent of likely voters are undecided.

Democrat Chad Causey, a former Berry staffer, faces his widest gap among independent voters, who support Crawford 51 percent to 24.

Crawford, a former Army sergeant who now owns a farm-news network, leads among male and female voters and with voters across all age groups.

This seat has been trending Republican: John McCain won it with 59 percent in 2008. And President Obama gets low marks from voters — 62 percent disapprove of the job he’s doing. Congressional disapproval is even higher — 76 percent think Congress is doing a bad job.

And 70 percent of voters said the president would be a factor in their 2010 decision.

Also, a majority of voters, 39 percent, said they have a better view of President George W. Bush now than they had when he first left office. Only 27 percent had a worse view, and 30 percent said they saw him “about the same.”

The NRCC has spent around $337,000 in this district, while the DCCC has spent about $304,000.

The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 5-7, surveyed 409 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent.


ILLINOIS-10

Democrat has big lead in seat long coveted by party

The third time may be the charm for Dan Seals and the Democrats. With incumbent Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) running for Senate, Seals looks like he might finally win this heavily Democratic district.

Seals has a 12-point lead over Republican Robert Dold, 49 percent to 37. Eleven percent of likely voters are undecided, according The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

It’s one of two districts The Hill polled where Democrats are in the lead. Republicans lead in 19 districts, and the candidates were tied in a 20th race.

Voters are split along party lines, with independents slightly favoring Seals, 42 percent to Dold’s 33. Seals also wins with male and female voters and across all age groups.

President Obama easily carried this district with 61 percent in 2008, and he gets a high approval rating from voters: Fifty-six percent say he’s doing a good job. That could help Seals, as 65 percent say the president is an important factor in their vote.

Kirk’s district has been a longtime Democratic target, and Seals came within 6 percent of beating him in 2006 and 2008. At one point, Seals was reported to be under consideration for appointment to Obama’s Senate seat, a spot that ultimately went to Roland Burris (D).

The NRCC has spent around $242,000 in this district, while the DCCC has spent about $271,000.

The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 405 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


WEST VIRGINIA-01

Democrat’s primary loss could prove a November win

Mike Oliverio shocked the Democratic establishment when he beat 14-term Rep. Alan Mollohan in the May primary. Mollohan was the first incumbent House member to lose in a primary this cycle.

But, in this anti-incumbent election year, Mollohan’s primary loss could prove to be an election-year win for Democrats.

In The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll, Oliverio leads Republican David McKinley, 42 percent to 39, with 16 percent of likely voters undecided.

It’s one of two districts The Hill polled where the Democrats are in the lead, but it’s a small margin and independents seem to be breaking for McKinley, 48 percent to 28, with 20 percent of that voting bloc undecided.

There is a lot of party crossover in this district: Nineteen percent of Republicans support Oliverio, and 17 percent of Democrats support McKinley.

Voters are also split among gender, with male voters favoring McKinley and females supporting Oliverio. Oliverio leads among younger voters, while McKinley leads among voters age 55 and up.

President Obama could prove detrimental here: He has a 63 percent disapproval rating, and 72 percent said the president would be an important factor in their 2010 decision.

This is a longtime Democratic stronghold (Mollohan’s father, Bob, held the seat for several terms before Mollohan took office), but Obama lost it by 15 percent in 2008.

And former President George W. Bush has strong numbers here: Forty-four percent said they had a better view of Bush now than they had when he first left office. Only 28 percent had a worse view, and 27 percent said they saw him “about the same.”

The NRCC has spent around $187,000 in this district, while the DCCC has spent about $132,000.

The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 405 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


HAWAII-01

Republican leads in Obama’s home state

Here’s a loss that would sting for national Democrats and President Obama.

Rep. Charles Djou (R-Hawaii), who won a special election this past May with less than 40 percent of the vote, currently leads Democrat Colleen Hanabusa 45 percent to 41, with 12 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

After Hanabusa and ex-Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii) split the Democratic vote in May, paving the way for Djou’s victory, Democrats were supposed to have a fairly easy time taking this district back in the fall. But Djou is proving to be a good candidate, and his favorables are above 60 percent in an overwhelmingly Democratic district.

Djou has a solid lead among male voters, but only leads by one point among females. Hanabusa’s strength is among younger voters — she gets 60 percent of their support — while voters aged 35-54 break for Djou. Voters 55 and older are evenly split — 43 percent for Hanabusa and 43 percent for Djou.

Obama also isn’t helping Hanabusa, even with his solid approval numbers in the district. This is one of just two districts where the president’s approval is net positive, with 64 percent of all likely voters approving of the president. Among independents, Obama’s approval is 57 percent.

A loss for Democrats here, in Obama’s home district and state, wouldn’t be a good omen for the party on election night.

And the party is spending to make sure that doesn’t happen. The DCCC has invested about $410,000 in this district.

The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 406 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


NEW HAMPSHIRE-02

Former GOP member has small lead in battle to retake his seat

Ex-Rep. Charlie Bass (R-N.H.) wants his old seat back, but an unlikely Democrat might stand in his way.

Ann McLane Kuster, who ran to the left in the Democratic primary in order to win the nomination, is now just three points behind Bass, trailing 45 percent to 42 with 9 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

Kuster has received significant support and fundraising assistance from liberal activists across the country and currently leads Bass among independents in the district, 43 percent to 40.

Approval of President Obama in this district is split evenly, with 49 approving of his job performance and 49 disapproving, but independents rate him slightly better, at 52 percent.

Bass is also cutting into Kuster’s base, taking the vote of 12 percent of Democrats in the poll. While Kuster trails big with male voters — Bass gets 52 percent to her 36 — she leads by 10 percentage points among females. Kuster’s strength is with younger voters, while Bass does well with older ones.

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The current seat holder, Rep. Paul Hodes (D), is running for Senate. Hodes defeated Bass by six points to take the seat in 2006.

The NRCC has spent around $165,000 in this district, while the DCCC has spent about $105,000.

The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 5-7, surveyed 407 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


PENNSYLVANIA-07

Single point separates the candidates

In the race to fill the seat of Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), Republican Patrick Meehan leads Democrat Bryan Lentz by just a single point — 40 percent to 39. And 20 percent of likely voters remain undecided in this district, according to The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

It’s a historically Republican district that has been trending Democratic in recent cycles. In 2008, President Obama won the district by 13 percent, and he still enjoys strong marks, with 56 percent approving of his job performance. Fifty-three percent of independents approve of the president, too.

That could be good news for Lentz, given that independent voters will likely be the margin in this district come Election Day. Right now, independents lean toward Meehan, 37 percent to 32. But 29 percent of independents remain undecided.

Independent voters in the 7th district tend to be white males over the age of 55. That demographic is currently breaking for Meehan — 44 percent to 37.

Lentz has a slight edge among female voters and younger voters.

The NRCC has spent around $220,000 in this district.

The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 405 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


MICHIGAN-01

Lots of independent voters up for grabs

Rep. Bart Stupak’s (D-Mich.) retirement hasn’t ensured that Democrats will hold his seat, according to The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

His would-be successor, state Rep. Gary McDowell (D), trails Republican Dan Benishek by three points — 42 percent to 39 — with 18 percent of likely voters undecided.

While that deficit is within the poll’s margin of error, the survey also revealed that McDowell remains relatively unknown in the district. A third of respondents were “not familiar” with the state lawmaker and, perhaps more troubling for his party, 31 percent of Democrats said the same thing.

Benishek faces a similar handicap, as 28 percent of Republicans weren’t familiar with him. But he’s likely to benefit from the 64 percent of independents who disapprove of President Obama. The group already favors the Republican, 41 percent to 29, but 29 percent remain undecided.

Two-thirds of those say their view of Obama will influence their vote.

Male voters are breaking for Benishek, while female voters are leaning toward McDowell.

Both parties are investing heavily in this district.

The NRCC has spent around $613,000, while the DCCC has spent about $520,000.

The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 401 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


TENNESSEE-08

Republican candidate up by 10 points in Dem seat

Farmer and gospel singer Stephen Fincher was one of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s top recruits, and he’s performing like it.

The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll shows him leading Democrat Roy Herron by 10 points in the race for retiring Rep. John Tanner’s (D) seat. And 14 percent of likely voters are undecided.

Independents are breaking for Fincher 53 percent to 23, although 20 percent say they remain undecided. The bad news for Herron is that 70 percent of independents said their negative view of President Obama will influence their vote in November.

Another obstacle for Herron is the 30 percent of respondents who said they had a negative view of him. That’s likely a result of the $568,432 the NRCC has spent on TV ads against him. Herron has run contrast spots against Fincher, but the Republican’s unfavorable rating is only at 20 percent by comparison.

Fincher is leading among male and female voters, while younger voters are breaking toward Herron.

The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 416 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent.


WASHINGTON-03

Heavy Republican investment has GOP candidate in the lead

Rep. Brian Baird (Wash.) was one of the first Democrats to announce his retirement this cycle, giving his party plenty of time to prepare for the open-seat race.

Still, Democrat Denny Heck is trailing Republican Jamie Herrera by two points, 40 percent to 42, with 15 percent of respondents undecided, according to The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

This is a district that voted in favor of President Obama by eight points two years ago, and his disapproval rating here isn’t as high as in other competitive districts surveyed in The Hill’s poll. Independents, however, are favoring Herrera 42 percent to 33.

Herrera is leading among male voters, while Heck leads among females. Younger voters are breaking for Herrera, while older voters are trending toward Heck.

Republicans are spending a lot more in this race than their Democratic counterparts.

The NRCC has spent around $644,000 in this district, while the DCCC has spent about $105,000.

The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 400 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


WISCONSIN-07

See this story for more information on the race for the seat vacated by Rep. David Obey (D-Wis.)

Kevin Cullum contributed to this article.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

- Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
- Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
- Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
- Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
- After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
- Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: The results so far

District by
district results

Arkansas
Illinois
West Virginia
Hawaii
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Tennessee
Washington

The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 1

- Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp
- Tea Party is firing up the Democrats
- Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election
- About the poll
- GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight
- Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election
- Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican
- Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines
- Editorial: Knowing who will win

District by
district results

Arizona
Colorado
Illinois
Maryland
Michigan
Nevada
New Mexico
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia