District by district - Washington

WASHINGTON-03

Heavy Republican investment has GOP candidate in the lead

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Rep. Brian Baird (Wash.) was one of the first Democrats to announce his retirement this cycle, giving his party plenty of time to prepare for the open-seat race.

Still, Democrat Denny Heck is trailing Republican Jamie Herrera by two points, 40 percent to 42, with 15 percent of respondents undecided, according to The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

This is a district that voted in favor of President Obama by eight points two years ago, and his disapproval rating here isn’t as high as in other competitive districts surveyed in The Hill’s poll. Independents, however, are favoring Herrera 42 percent to 33.

Herrera is leading among male voters, while Heck leads among females. Younger voters are breaking for Herrera, while older voters are trending toward Heck.

Republicans are spending a lot more in this race than their Democratic counterparts.

The NRCC has spent around $644,000 in this district, while the DCCC has spent about $105,000.

The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 400 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

- Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
- Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
- Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
- Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
- After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
- Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: The results so far

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The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 1

- Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp
- Tea Party is firing up the Democrats
- Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election
- About the poll
- GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight
- Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election
- Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican
- Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines
- Editorial: Knowing who will win

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