District by district - Illinois

ILLINOIS-10

Democrat has big lead in seat long coveted by party

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The third time may be the charm for Dan Seals and the Democrats. With incumbent Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) running for Senate, Seals looks like he might finally win this heavily Democratic district.

Seals has a 12-point lead over Republican Robert Dold, 49 percent to 37. Eleven percent of likely voters are undecided, according The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

It’s one of two districts The Hill polled where Democrats are in the lead. Republicans lead in 19 districts, and the candidates were tied in a 20th race.

Voters are split along party lines, with independents slightly favoring Seals, 42 percent to Dold’s 33. Seals also wins with male and female voters and across all age groups.

President Obama easily carried this district with 61 percent in 2008, and he gets a high approval rating from voters: Fifty-six percent say he’s doing a good job. That could help Seals, as 65 percent say the president is an important factor in their vote.

Kirk’s district has been a longtime Democratic target, and Seals came within 6 percent of beating him in 2006 and 2008. At one point, Seals was reported to be under consideration for appointment to Obama’s Senate seat, a spot that ultimately went to Roland Burris (D).

The NRCC has spent around $242,000 in this district, while the DCCC has spent about $271,000.

The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 405 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

- Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
- Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
- Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
- Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
- After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
- Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: The results so far

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The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 1

- Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp
- Tea Party is firing up the Democrats
- Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election
- About the poll
- GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight
- Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election
- Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican
- Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines
- Editorial: Knowing who will win

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