District by district - Michigan

MICHIGAN-01

Lots of independent voters up for grabs

Rep. Bart Stupak’s (D-Mich.) retirement hasn’t ensured that Democrats will hold his seat, according to The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

His would-be successor, state Rep. Gary McDowell (D), trails Republican Dan Benishek by three points — 42 percent to 39 — with 18 percent of likely voters undecided.

While that deficit is within the poll’s margin of error, the survey also revealed that McDowell remains relatively unknown in the district. A third of respondents were “not familiar” with the state lawmaker and, perhaps more troubling for his party, 31 percent of Democrats said the same thing.

Benishek faces a similar handicap, as 28 percent of Republicans weren’t familiar with him. But he’s likely to benefit from the 64 percent of independents who disapprove of President Obama. The group already favors the Republican, 41 percent to 29, but 29 percent remain undecided.

Two-thirds of those say their view of Obama will influence their vote.

Male voters are breaking for Benishek, while female voters are leaning toward McDowell.

Both parties are investing heavily in this district.

The NRCC has spent around $613,000, while the DCCC has spent about $520,000.

The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 401 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.