District by district - West Virginia

WEST VIRGINIA-01

Democrat’s primary loss could prove a November win

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Mike Oliverio shocked the Democratic establishment when he beat 14-term Rep. Alan Mollohan in the May primary. Mollohan was the first incumbent House member to lose in a primary this cycle.

But, in this anti-incumbent election year, Mollohan’s primary loss could prove to be an election-year win for Democrats.

In The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll, Oliverio leads Republican David McKinley, 42 percent to 39, with 16 percent of likely voters undecided.

It’s one of two districts The Hill polled where the Democrats are in the lead, but it’s a small margin and independents seem to be breaking for McKinley, 48 percent to 28, with 20 percent of that voting bloc undecided.

There is a lot of party crossover in this district: Nineteen percent of Republicans support Oliverio, and 17 percent of Democrats support McKinley.

Voters are also split among gender, with male voters favoring McKinley and females supporting Oliverio. Oliverio leads among younger voters, while McKinley leads among voters age 55 and up.

President Obama could prove detrimental here: He has a 63 percent disapproval rating, and 72 percent said the president would be an important factor in their 2010 decision.

This is a longtime Democratic stronghold (Mollohan’s father, Bob, held the seat for several terms before Mollohan took office), but Obama lost it by 15 percent in 2008.

And former President George W. Bush has strong numbers here: Forty-four percent said they had a better view of Bush now than they had when he first left office. Only 28 percent had a worse view, and 27 percent said they saw him “about the same.”

The NRCC has spent around $187,000 in this district, while the DCCC has spent about $132,000.

The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 405 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

- Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
- Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
- Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
- Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
- After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
- Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: The results so far

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The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 1

- Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp
- Tea Party is firing up the Democrats
- Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election
- About the poll
- GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight
- Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election
- Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican
- Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines
- Editorial: Knowing who will win

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