District by district - Pennsylvania

PENNSYLVANIA-08

Democratic incumbent leads over former GOP lawmaker

Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) holds a three-point lead over Republican candidate Michael Fitzpatrick, 46 percent to 43, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided, in The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

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Murphy is losing independent voters by five points, but he makes that up with 13 percent of Republican support. Fitzpatrick is only getting 8 percent of Democratic support.

Murphy is also doing well among females, leading by 12 percent in that demographic. Fitzpatrick wins male voters.

Fitzpatrick, who represented the district for one term after winning the 2004 election, has a high name ID, with only 8 percent of voters saying they’re not familiar with him.

This could be a close race. The last time the two men faced one another, in 2006, Murphy won by a little more than 1,500 votes. Voters approve of the job he’s doing, with 53 percent giving him a favorable rating to a 36 percent unfavorable. Fitzpatrick gets 50 percent approval marks, with 35 percent rating him negatively.

Murphy won reelection in 2008 with 57 percent. He is the first Iraq war veteran to serve in Congress and is one of its youngest members. Vice President Joe Biden has campaigned for him.

Republicans are investing in defeating Murphy. The NRCC has spent about $204,000 in independent expenditures in the district.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 9-12. The survey consisted of 398 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


PENNSYLVANIA-10

Another race all tied up

This is the second race The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll found to be in a tie.

Blue Dog Rep. Chris Carney (D-Pa.) and Republican Thomas Marino both receive 41 percent, with 16 percent of likely voters undecided.

And Carney is getting 13 percent of the Republican vote in this GOP-leaning district. Independents also favor the incumbent, with Carney receiving 49 percent of their support to Marino’s 30.

In a twist from the other districts, the Democratic Carney is leading among male voters, while the Republican Marino is leading with female voters.

Younger voters are breaking for Carney, but the race gets tighter with middle-aged and older voters. Middle-aged voters are split 39-39 on whom to support, while Marino leads by one point among older voters.

Both President Obama and Congress get low marks from voters in this district: Fifty-nine percent disapprove of the job the president is doing, while 80 percent disapprove of the job Congress is doing.

And 42 percent say Obama has brought change to Washington “for the worse,” while 23 percent say it’s “for the better” and 31 percent say nothing has changed.

Carney voted for the healthcare reform bill, but made sure the legislation didn’t contain government funding of abortions. He has not shied away from his ties to the administration. Vice President Biden has been to Pennsylvania to campaign for him.

He was listed as vulnerable in 2008 but won reelection with 56 percent of the vote. The NRCC has spent about $674,000 in independent expenditures, while the DCCC has spent around $182,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The survey consisted of 406 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 3

- Majority says no "change" under Obama, or change for the worse
- Media has gotten more partisan, likely voters say in poll
- Democrats twice as likely as GOPers to consider their party too extreme
- Pelosi ‘majority makers’ are facing electoral peril
- Only 1-in-4 see American Dream as still there for all
- Voters are not worried about ‘extreme’ label on candidates
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: Election tides

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The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

- Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
- Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
- Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
- Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
- After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
- Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: The results so far

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The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 1

- Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp
- Tea Party is firing up the Democrats
- Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election
- About the poll
- GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight
- Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election
- Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican
- Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines
- Editorial: Knowing who will win

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