District by district - New York

NEW YORK-19

All tied up

This is the first of two races The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll found to be in a tie.

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Rep. John Hall (D-N.Y.) and his GOP challenger, Nan Hayworth, both received 43 percent of the vote, with 12 percent of likely voters undecided.

Hall leads by five points among women while Hayworth leads by five among men. Independents are breaking for Hayworth, with the ophthalmologist receiving 50 percent of their vote to Hall’s 35 percent. And 13 percent of independents are undecided.

Hall is doing well among Republican voters — he gets 12 percent of their support, while Hayworth only gets 9 percent of Democratic support. Hall also leads with younger voters and older voters, while Hayworth does better among middle-aged voters.

President Obama barely won this district in 2008, and only 42 percent approve of the job he’s doing, while 55 percent disapprove. And 79 percent disapprove of the job Congress is doing.

Thirty-five percent of voters couldn’t come up with a compelling reason to vote for Democrats in November, while 27 percent said the same of Republicans.

Hall voted for the trifecta of legislation the GOP is attacking Democrats for supporting: cap-and-trade; healthcare reform; and the economic stimulus.

Fifty-one percent of voters in this district said they think the Democratic leadership in Congress is to the left of them.

Hall won reelection in 2008 with a comfortable 59 percent.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The survey consisted of 416 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent.

NEW YORK-24

Dem incumbent leads in 2008 rematch

Republican Richard Hanna lost to Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.) by four points in 2008, and now he trails Arcuri by 10 points in The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

Arcuri receives 47 percent to Hanna’s 37, with 15 percent of likely voters undecided. Arcuri posts strong numbers among Republicans — he gets 19 percent of their support — and does well with independents, getting 46 percent of their support to Hanna’s 27. Arcuri has a 17-point lead among females and a four-point lead among males. He also posts strong numbers with young and older voters, while Hanna does well among middle-aged voters.

Arcuri benefits from high favorability  ratings: Fifty-two percent approve of the job he’s doing, compared to 29 percent who disapprove. And Hanna, despite being the 2008 nominee, has low name ID: Seventeen percent of voters said they weren’t familiar with him.

One thing apparently not hurting Arcuri is Congress’s approval ratings, which are dismal in this district: Only 22 percent approve of the job it’s doing, while 74 percent disapprove.

The NRCC has spent about $217,000 in independent expenditures, while the DCCC has spent around $499,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The survey consisted of 400 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 3

- Majority says no "change" under Obama, or change for the worse
- Media has gotten more partisan, likely voters say in poll
- Democrats twice as likely as GOPers to consider their party too extreme
- Pelosi ‘majority makers’ are facing electoral peril
- Only 1-in-4 see American Dream as still there for all
- Voters are not worried about ‘extreme’ label on candidates
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: Election tides

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The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

- Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
- Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
- Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
- Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
- After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
- Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: The results so far

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district results

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The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 1

- Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp
- Tea Party is firing up the Democrats
- Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election
- About the poll
- GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight
- Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election
- Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican
- Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines
- Editorial: Knowing who will win

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district results

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