District by district - New Hampshire

NEW HAMPSHIRE-01

Democratic incumbent trails by five

Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.) trails Republican candidate Frank Guinta by five points, 42 percent to 47, with 9 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

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While Shea-Porter leads by eight points among female voters, Guinta has an even stronger lead among male voters: He wins them by 19 points.

Shea-Porter has a 45-point lead among young voters, while Guinta has a 15-point lead among middle-aged voters and leads among older voters by one point.

Guinta is also winning over independents: He gets 44 percent of their support compared to Shea-Porter’s 38. And 16 percent of independents say they are undecided.

Shea-Porter has a high unfavorability rating, at 50 percent, while Guinta’s unfavorables are at 33 percent. However, 20 percent of voters said they aren’t familiar with Guinta, while only 4 percent said that of Shea-Porter, who is the first woman to be elected to national office from New Hampshire.

Republicans lead in voter enthusiasm: Ninety-five percent said they will definitely vote, while 89 percent of Democrats said the same. And 90 percent of independents say they will definitely vote.

Meanwhile, 40 percent of voters could not give a compelling reason to vote for Democrats in November, while only 30 percent said the same of Republicans.

But Shea-Porter is used to tough races. She won in 2006 and 2008 with a little more than 50 percent of the vote.

Republicans are spending heavily to defeat her. The NRCC has spent about $703,000 in independent expenditures in the district.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 9-12. The survey consisted of 407 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 3

- Majority says no "change" under Obama, or change for the worse
- Media has gotten more partisan, likely voters say in poll
- Democrats twice as likely as GOPers to consider their party too extreme
- Pelosi ‘majority makers’ are facing electoral peril
- Only 1-in-4 see American Dream as still there for all
- Voters are not worried about ‘extreme’ label on candidates
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: Election tides

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The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

- Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
- Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
- Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
- Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
- After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
- Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: The results so far

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The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 1

- Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp
- Tea Party is firing up the Democrats
- Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election
- About the poll
- GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight
- Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election
- Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican
- Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines
- Editorial: Knowing who will win

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