District by district - Mississippi

MISSISSIPPI-01

Blue Dog Democrat behind in GOP-leaning district

Blue Dog Democratic Rep. Travis Childers (Miss.) is in a tight race, trailing his Republican challenger by five points, 39 percent to 44, with 12 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

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Childers’s party ties could hurt him in this district John McCain won by 24 points in 2008. Only 35 percent approve of the job President Obama is doing, while 63 percent disapprove. And 71 percent said the president will be an important factor when they go to the ballot box.

Plus, 59 percent of voters said the Democratic leadership in Congress was to the left of them, and only 21 percent described the leadership as “about where you are.”

Childers seems to acknowledge that reality. In a recent campaign ad, he notes he voted against Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) 267 times. He also voted against healthcare reform legislation.

Meanwhile, 39 percent of voters couldn’t come up with a compelling reason to vote for Democrats in November.

Republican Alan Nunnelee is winning independent voters with 48 percent of their support. He is also winning male voters and older voters. Childers leads among women and younger voters.

Childers first won the seat in a special election, after Roger Wicker was appointed to the Senate. Childers won reelection easily in 2008 — by 10 points.

Party spending has been heavy in this race.

The NRCC has spent about $667,000 in independent expenditures, while the DCCC has spent around $505,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 9-17. The survey consisted of 603 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 3

- Majority says no "change" under Obama, or change for the worse
- Media has gotten more partisan, likely voters say in poll
- Democrats twice as likely as GOPers to consider their party too extreme
- Pelosi ‘majority makers’ are facing electoral peril
- Only 1-in-4 see American Dream as still there for all
- Voters are not worried about ‘extreme’ label on candidates
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: Election tides

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The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

- Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
- Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
- Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
- Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
- After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
- Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
- District by district
- Data: The numbers the stories are based on
- Editorial: The results so far

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The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 1

- Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp
- Tea Party is firing up the Democrats
- Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election
- About the poll
- GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight
- Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election
- Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican
- Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines
- Editorial: Knowing who will win

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